Aug 26, 2022, 12:30 PM ETOther

The Saudi prince: how dangerous is MBS?

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has rapidly dismantled the power of Saudi Arabia's ultra-conservative religious establishment, a transition achieved without the civil wars or street violence typically associated with such shifts.
Social restrictions previously enforced by religious police have been lifted, allowing public mixing of unmarried men and women and legalizing public entertainment, including female DJs.
Specific reforms include granting women the right to drive and significantly increasing their participation in public and professional life.
The Economist reported that the normalization of these changes felt "astonishing" to observers, with a society that previously forbade such socialization now appearing entirely conventional.

MBS ascended to the line of succession through a combination of familial favoritism from his father, King Salman, and the death of two older brothers.
In 2017, MBS forced his cousin, then-Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, to abdicate following a standoff where bin Nayef's guards were disarmed.
Following this succession change, MBS initiated a sweeping corruption probe that detained leading princes and business elites, compelling them to reveal banking details and transfer assets to the state.
The government has maintained tight social control with rights groups estimating thousands of detentions and 81 executions carried out in March alone.
Khalid Al-Jabri, an exile, reports that his siblings were seized by authorities in 2020 to pressure their father, a former advisor to the previous crown prince, back into the kingdom.

MBS is accused of approving an operation to kill or capture Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was dismembered with a bone saw in the Istanbul consulate in 2018.
While MBS has claimed responsibility for the murder, he denies personally ordering the killing, a stance the US initially threatened to penalize but later softened due to energy concerns.
The Saudi royal court denies all allegations against MBS, labeling them as "fabricated," "malicious," and lacking foundation, attributing them to politically motivated sources.
US President Biden visited Saudi Arabia despite previous threats to impose sanctions, signaling that the energy crisis has restored the strategic priority of the Saudi alliance over human rights concerns.

MBS launched Vision 2030 to diversify the economy away from oil, featuring high-profile projects like the eco-city Neom, though the kingdom remains heavily dependent on oil revenues.
Economic diversification efforts have faced setbacks, with unemployment remaining in double figures and traditional oil subsidies removed.
The kingdom's current geopolitical leverage is significantly strengthened by the global energy crisis and the war in Ukraine, making Gulf oil essential to the global economy.
MBS positioned himself as the necessary partner for the West to maintain influence in the Middle East and counter Russian and Chinese dominance.

As defense minister in 2015, MBS intervened in the war in Yemen to crush Houthi rebels supported by Iran's arch-rival, Saudi Arabia.
Seven years into the conflict, the Houthi rebels have forced Saudi Arabia into a ceasefire despite Saudi air defenses having improved over the years.
The kingdom's vast geography leaves it vulnerable to drone attacks and projectiles originating from Iran or its proxies, which have successfully penetrated Saudi airspace.
Experts warn that the regime's reliance on fear to maintain social peace during a "wrenching transition" may create a breaking point if economic frustrations rise.

Analysts describe MBS as ego-driven, aggressive, and impulsive, noting that his consolidation of power has eliminated internal dissent and created an environment where no one can "say no" to his decisions.
The primary threat to MBS's longevity may stem from his own recklessness and brutality, potentially leading to a fatal misjudgment.
Religious hardliners remain unhappy with the rapid social reforms, representing a potential source of internal opposition.
The film's producers submitted allegations to the royal court for comment; the court declined to respond but reiterated its previous denial of all accusations in a statement to The Economist.