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The Saudi prince: how dangerous is MBS?
- The Kingdom is positioned to leverage its influence regarding the Ukraine conflict and global energy crisis, with oil dependence projected to continue for the foreseeable future despite diversification efforts like Neom.
- Mohammed bin Salman's consolidation of power, marked by a shift in succession from brother-to-brother, includes the 2017 removal of Mohammed bin Nayef and is expected to result in his eventual succession following his father's 2015 ascension.
- Reforms over the last five or six years have transitioned the society from religious police rule to include normal public spaces and mixed-gender socializing without triggering civil wars, though religious hardliners remain opposed.
- A consolidated power structure has been characterized by mass detentions and 81 executions in March of the current year, raising predictions that the family of Khalid Al-Jabri will see expanding victimization unless intervention occurs.
- International pressure, such as President Biden's threats regarding the Jamal Khashoggi killing, is viewed as diminished due to energy market dynamics, while MBS positions himself as the essential regional partner to counter Russian and Chinese dominance.
- Significant risks include vulnerability to Iranian drone and projectile attacks despite improved air defenses, the potential for economic frustration to convert into political unrest if diversification promises fail, and the possibility of MBS's downfall stemming from recklessness, brutality, or isolation.
- The sustainability of rule by fear is questioned due to the risk of a future breaking point, alongside the persistent expectation that the leadership will continue to face false accusations.