May 5, 2016, 12:16 PM ETPanel, Conference Presentation

The Shifting Economic Power of Cities

Milken InstituteConrad Kiechel, Fahd Al-Rasheed, Byron Boston, Marc Morial, Naheed A. Nenshi, Carol Kretschmann

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By 2025, 136 new cities are expected to enter the global top 600 in population, with 100 of these located in China.
San Francisco and San Jose are currently ranked as the top two U.S. cities, a position attributed to the tech sector, while San Jose is projected to remain one of the top two for the current year.
New Orleans is estimated to have 400,000 to 425,000 city proper residents with a metropolitan area of 1.25 million, with projections indicating the city will remain smaller than 50,000 to 75,000 in the future.
Baton Rouge is on track to become Louisiana's largest city with nearly 500,000 people, a shift driven by displacement following Hurricane Katrina.
The African-American community remains the majority of New Orleans' city population, though its share has decreased relative to pre-Katrina levels.
Suburbs surrounding New Orleans are expected to become increasingly diverse as displaced populations relocate to these areas.
The millennial generation is projected to increasingly prefer walking neighborhoods and public transportation, driving demand for "walking city" designs centered on strong public infrastructure.
Cities are expected to be viewed as economic regions rather than distinct cores, with the Los Angeles region potentially extending into northern Mexico.
Public and private actors are expected to prioritize cities as primary drivers of economic reimagining across national, local, and philanthropic levels.
Emart Economic City is expected to have the largest port in Saudi Arabia operational by the end of the current year.
Emart Economic City is projected to grow at a rate of 20 to 30 percent in every sector over the next decade.
Emart Economic City intends to address the housing needs of 2 million people by creating affordable, middle-income, and high-income units based on projected labor income.
Saudi Arabia's Red Sea region is projected to represent a 620 million person market today, growing to a 1.3 billion person opportunity by 2050.
By 2050, the Red Sea market is expected to compete with China and India as a major emerging market in the world.
Saudi Arabia is expected to transition from a petroleum-based economy over the coming years, driven by the Vision 2030 initiative.
Education systems in Saudi Arabia are expected to change radically to support higher mobility and skill sharing rather than full-time employment models.
Emart Economic City has re-evaluated its master planning to be more than 100-year flood protected, moving away from 20th-century infrastructure designs.
The future operation of Emart Economic City is expected to be governed by a corporate model where owners elect a board to select and fire a CEO, removing four-year election cycles.
Governance in Emart Economic City is expected to separate development and ownership from operation, using a voting system similar to a corporation.
Calgary is expected to maintain its status as one of the five most livable cities while managing growth and sprawl.
Neighborhoods in Calgary are expected to undergo a transformation cycle every 35 to 40 years, requiring rejuvenation strategies to remain multi-generational.
Developers in Calgary are expected to increasingly bear the full cost of water and wastewater infrastructure to align private incentives with public costs.
Housing demand is expected to evolve to include more apartment-style living and shared spaces as family structures change and large home maintenance becomes a deterrent.
The millennial generation is expected to drive demand for housing accommodating different lifestyle choices, requiring specific city designs.
Dynex Capital is expected to continue generating revenue in affordable housing by managing risk through public-private partnerships like the low-income tax credit program.
The U.S. housing market is expected to require a national "housing czar" to elevate the issue and strategize it at a national level to prevent Wall Street bashing.
A "housing czar" is expected to facilitate the creation of a body similar to FSOC to address systemic risk in the housing sector.
Emart Economic City is expected to rely on private capital and private operators to manage infrastructure, avoiding operational inefficiencies associated with government-run assets.
Public-private partnerships are expected to be utilized when governments cannot access capital or when private operators can assume failure risk more effectively.
The global supply of cash seeking decent returns is expected to be leveraged through efficient capital markets to finance public infrastructure projects at historically low interest rates.
Affordable housing is expected to become more feasible as costs are squeezed from regulatory and financing processes, potentially utilizing non-agency mortgage-backed securities with skin in the game.
Self-driving cars are expected to change transportation usage patterns by inducing demand through features like kids' transportation and reduced parking needs, potentially negating capacity improvements.
3D printing technology is expected to make housing much more affordable in the long term, with some industry developers anticipating viability within five years.
The construction industry is expected to utilize 3D printing to build houses in a day rather than six months, fundamentally changing the housing equation.
Technology is expected to play a critical role in the future of cities through three layers: administrative dashboards, citizen empowerment apps, and smart home utility management.
Emart Economic City is expected to keep its technology systems open and not closed-circuit to allow citizens to create new apps and leverage city infrastructure.
Crime prevention strategies are expected to rely heavily on investing in youth employment and creating "wholesome opportunities" to act as a long-term hedge against criminal activity.
The U.S. is expected to require a significant investment in summer youth employment programs, potentially costing $3 to $5 billion annually, to provide a magnet away from street life.
Community resiliency and police-community ties are expected to be the fundamental mechanisms for ensuring safety, rather than purely enforcement-based approaches.
Calgary is expected to have absorbed 1,300 Syrian refugees within an eight-week period, leading to a massive public shift toward welcoming and assisting newcomers.
The global refugee crisis is expected to be addressed through cities acting as places of sanctuary, requiring housing, language training, and job training solutions.
Cities are expected to play a pivotal role in integrating refugees by utilizing community-led initiatives to welcome and support displaced populations.