Interview, Other
The Weekend Intelligence: Crunch time for Ukraine
The EconomistJason Palmer, Zanny Minton-Bettos, Ivan Baryak, Vlad, Achilles, Yuri, Vadim Sukharevsky, Tatiana, Vitaly Klitschko, Andrei Yermak, Volodymyr Hobachuk, Roman Kuziv, Mike Pompeo, Chris Murphy, Christian Freuding
- Ukraine may lack the immediate capacity to expel Russian forces, reclaim all lost territory, or return to 1991 borders in the near future, with the strategic situation near Pokrovsk described as precarious and the town considered "in trouble" with a risk of falling to allow Russian advances across the Donbass plains.
- The winter season is projected to be the most difficult period, with expectations that Russia will intensify attacks on the electricity grid, while the conflict is characterized as a "race to the bottom" testing the endurance of both populations and resources over an indefinite timeline.
- Western partners, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, face risks of fatigue that could lead to reduced support or an end to aid, a situation that could be exacerbated by the U.S. election outcome in November 2025 or a potential second Trump administration which might be hyper-isolationist.
- Material expectations include a significant rise in Ukrainian public opinion favoring territorial concessions, with 32% of those near front lines considering such options, yet many fear that a peace deal allowing Russia to retain occupied territories would trigger internal revolution, civil unrest, or the destruction of the government.
- Defense industry trends indicate a "golden hour" for medical evacuation will likely remain unattainable due to Russian targeting, prompting the development of underground medical facilities, while drone production is growing with 250 producers currently supplying more units than the military can afford.
- Recruitment challenges are noted on both sides, with Russia expected to pay four times its initial war-era rates to entice recruits and press support staff to the front lines, while the average Ukrainian desertion or AWOL rate is projected to reach 10%, totaling approximately 100,000 personnel.
- Long-term strategic plans and outcomes hinge on securing a credible security guarantee, with NATO membership viewed as essential to deter a re-armed Russia that might breach any future peace deal, alongside a shift in focus toward defending current holdings rather than total liberation.
- Internal risks include a potential fracture of Ukrainian society into an embittered population with armed partisan militias, or a split within the military between well-equipped autonomous brigades and less resourced forces, particularly if the government cannot convince the population that compromise is necessary for survival.
- European defense markets are expected to expand, with the war serving as an opportunity for Europe to learn modern warfare lessons from Ukraine, including in drone technology and communications, while Europe may also utilize increased defense production capabilities to support the continent.
- The future trajectory of the conflict is heavily dependent on the U.S. election, which will determine the pace of weapon delivery, the specific systems received, and whether continued American backing facilitates NATO accession or abandons Ukraine, potentially leading to a catastrophic outcome if Ukraine's defenses buckle.
- Russian tactics are anticipated to continue relying on "meat grinder" strategies with disregard for soldier lives, facing their own strain from fighting on multiple fronts and shortages of men and armor, while leadership uses any ceasefire to regroup and attack with greater strength in the future.