The World Ahead 2024: five stories to watch out for

2024 Global Elections

• The year is projected to be the largest election year in history, with more than half of the world's population participating in national votes.
• Two specific elections carry disproportionate global stakes: the U.S. presidential election and the January Taiwanese election.
• Taiwan's political uncertainty is exacerbated by U.S. intelligence indicating President Xi Jinping's goal to have PLA forces ready for a potential invasion by 2027.
• Over 50% of Taiwanese citizens lack confidence in their government's ability to defend against a Chinese invasion.
• The 2024 Taiwan vote presents a strategic choice between the ruling DPP, which emphasizes resisting China, and opposition parties favoring warmer cross-strait relations.
• Divergent U.S. foreign policy stances under a second Trump presidency could introduce unpredictability and increased conflict risk compared to the Biden administration's commitment to defense.
• Voter concerns in Taiwan regarding civil defense are already tangible, with citizens participating in workshops led by individuals such as 22-year-old Chen Boyen.

Aviation and eVTOL Commercialization

• Commercial electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) services are scheduled to launch during the Paris Olympics in July 2024.
• Volocopter plans to operate five tourist routes in Paris at speeds up to 110 km/h, prioritizing piloted flights over autonomous ones to secure regulatory certification.
• The global eVTOL market is projected to reach a value of $1 trillion by 2040, driven by both commercial and private sectors.
• Palo Alto startup Pivotal will launch the "Helix," a single-seat eVTOL designed for private pilot use without a formal license, priced at $190,000.
• Industry regulators continue to struggle with certification frameworks, forcing companies to delay fully autonomous operations in favor of human-piloted initial services.
• Pivotal's Helix requires only weeks of training and utilizes a single joystick for all flight maneuvers, though operations are currently restricted to rural areas and daylight hours.

AI Regulation and Societal Risks

• 2024 will shift the AI discourse from theoretical "frontier model" risks to immediate practical harms, including algorithmic bias and discrimination.
• The UK charity The Public Law Project has identified 28 government tools used by the Home Office, raising concerns over discriminatory welfare fraud investigations targeting specific nationalities.
• Historical precedents include the 2021 Dutch welfare AI scandal that collapsed the government and Australia's "robo-debt" scandal, which resulted in at least two suicides.
• Regulatory milestones include the expected implementation of the EU AI Act in 2024 and two AI safety summits scheduled for South Korea and Paris.
• Critics argue that the industry's focus on existential risks serves as a distraction from documented harms and a marketing tool to hype technological capability.
• Transparency remains a barrier, with many governments currently obscure regarding their deployment of AI in decision-making processes.

Industrial Decarbonization

• Industrial production, responsible for nearly 29% of global greenhouse gas emissions, is becoming a primary focus for climate action alongside energy and transport sectors.
• Finnish startup Coolbrook will begin shipping rotodynamic heaters in 2024, utilizing renewable electricity to generate high industrial temperatures without fossil fuels.
• European Union carbon taxes introduced in 2023 are expected to spur similar regulatory measures in the U.S., UK, and Australia in 2024.
• New technologies, such as thermal energy storage systems ("rocks in a box"), are emerging to manage renewable energy supply for industrial demand.
• Adoption faces significant inertia due to the high capital costs and operational disruptions required to replace existing heavy industry equipment.

Geopolitical Shifts and BRICS Expansion

• The BRICS bloc will expand in 2024 to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, challenging the American-led global order.
• Argentina's accession is now considered unlikely following the election of President Javier Milei.
• The expanded BRICS+ group represents nearly half of the global population and holds a GDP share approximately 20% larger than the G7.
• Internal cohesion remains a critical variable, with existing friction between India and China regarding border skirmishes and divergent economic strategies.
• BRICS members are developing alternative financial mechanisms, including a World Bank counterpart and currency swap lines, to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and IMF.
• The rise of "middle powers" such as Turkey and Qatar is diversifying global diplomacy, taking on mediation roles in the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts respectively.
• Despite the emergence of alternative blocs, the U.S. maintains superior military capabilities and a broader alliance network compared to China.