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The World Ahead 2024: five stories to watch out for
- Global Elections and Geopolitical Risk: 2024 is projected as the largest election year in history with over half the global population in participating nations; outcomes in the U.S. and Taiwan (January polls) are predicted to significantly influence the deterrence or acceleration of a potential Chinese invasion, with intelligence suggesting a readiness goal for Chinese forces by 2027.
- U.S. Policy and Taiwan: A second Trump presidency is expected to introduce unpredictability and elevated risks for Taiwan, while Taiwan's domestic electorate is divided between fears of easier Chinese takeover via opposition victory or war driven by legal independence efforts under the current government.
- eVTOL Commercialization: Commercial eVTOL service is anticipated to launch in 2024, potentially starting with Paris Olympics routes at speeds up to 110 km/h, while regulatory hurdles regarding autonomy may force a return to piloted versions; the market is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2040.
- Consumer eVTOL Launch: Palo Alto startup Pivotal plans to launch the Helix eVTOL in 2024, a $190,000 recreational vehicle operable by anyone with a single joystick, intended to eventually evolve into a standard transportation mode despite current price barriers.
- AI Governance and Safety: Focus in 2024 is shifting to human control and immediate risks like bias rather than existential threats, with the EU AI Act expected in 2024 and two safety summits in South Korea and Paris; governments are predicted to remain opaque regarding AI deployment, and strict early regulations may stifle progress while rapid advancement poses dangers.
- Industrial Decarbonization: Attention is turning to industrial emissions, which constitute nearly 29% of global totals, with Coolbrook shipping rotodynamic heaters to replace fossil fuels in 2024 and nations like the U.S., UK, and Australia expected to introduce carbon taxes following the EU's 2023 model, though equipment replacement delays remain a concern.
- BRICS Expansion and Multipolarity: The BRICS bloc will expand to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in 2024, while Argentina's entry is considered unlikely; despite internal friction and limited cohesion, the group aims to challenge the U.S.-dominated financial order through alternative institutions and currency swaps.
- Rise of Middle Powers: The geopolitical landscape is expected to become more multipolar in 2024 as middle powers assert themselves as negotiators in conflicts such as Ukraine and Gaza, challenging U.S. influence without necessarily eclipsing American power.