The World in 2021: five stories to watch out for

Global democratic trends and restrictions

• 80 countries have experienced a deterioration in democracy and human rights since the pandemic began, with the highest concentration in Africa.
• In Uganda, authorities have utilized pandemic protocols to ban opposition rallies, leading to the arrest of 1,000 people and 45 deaths during protests against the crackdown on candidate Bobi Wine.
• The Ugandan government has imposed 2020-era internet registration rules to censor online opposition speech, reflecting a broader global trend where 91 countries have introduced new or increased media restrictions.
• Autocratic leaders are leveraging health emergencies to solidify power, exemplified by President Yoweri Museveni extending his rule for a sixth term after constitutional changes in 2017.
• Activists warn that without widespread vaccination and the resumption of physical organizing, the retreat of democratic institutions in 2021 poses a significant risk.

Electric vehicle (EV) market acceleration

• 2021 marks a tipping point for EVs as over 250 firms manufacture electric vehicles, with 47 battery factories currently under construction.
• Tesla's inclusion in the S&P 500 following its market value surge has validated the sector for traditional manufacturers.
• General Motors will begin production of an all-electric Hummer in autumn 2021 to target the lucrative US pickup truck market.
• Tesla is scheduled to launch the Cybertruck at the end of 2021, signaling a strategic shift by major automakers to electrify their most profitable vehicle segments.
• Despite a 2020 decline in total car sales, battery-powered vehicle sales are projected to grow rapidly throughout the coming decade.

Climate change policy and the COP26 summit

• COP26, originally scheduled for 2020, is postponed to November 2021 in Glasgow; the summit aims to invoke the Paris Agreement's "ratchet mechanism" for nations to submit stronger emissions reduction pledges.
• The EU has committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050, pending further policy details in 2021.
• China announced a target for carbon neutrality by 2060 in September 2020, with specific implementation plans anticipated during 2021.
• The US is expected to rejoin the Paris Agreement immediately under President-elect Joe Biden, who has pledged to make the nation carbon neutral by 2050.
• Experts note that while long-term targets are easy to announce, the primary challenge lies in enacting domestic policies to achieve these goals.

Shift in global cinema power dynamics

• Projections indicate China will surpass the US to become the world's largest box office market in 2021.
• Hollywood's dominance is waning as US revenues stagnate due to a shift toward video on demand, while Chinese cinema attendance rises to nearly 75% capacity.
• Local content now accounts for 65–75% of the Chinese cinema slate, supported by increased budgets and a growing young demographic.
• Hollywood's reliance on Chinese ticket sales has encouraged self-censorship, with studios altering narratives (e.g., changing Tilda Swinton's ethnicity in Doctor Strange) to appease Chinese regulators.
• Despite its box office dominance, China is unlikely to successfully export its own blockbusters globally in the near term due to cultural specificity and language barriers, though Western studios may adapt successful Chinese titles.

Planetary defense and asteroid missions

• NASA will launch the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) in July 2021 to execute the world's first planetary defense trial.
• The DART mission will use kinetic impactor technology to deliberately collide a spacecraft with the asteroid moonlet Dimorphos, aiming to shorten its orbit around the larger asteroid Didymos.
• The kinetic impact will occur in 2022, allowing scientists to measure momentum changes via telescopes; the target asteroids pose no immediate threat to Earth.
• The mission is prompted by the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor event, which injured 1,200 people and highlighted the tangible risk of undetected space objects.
• While the probability of a catastrophic asteroid impact remains extremely low, the DART mission aims to transition planetary defense from science fiction to operational reality.