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The World in 2021: five stories to watch out for
- Democracy is projected to face significant testing in 2021 due to a high volume of global elections, with a specific risk of backsliding in fragile African states where autocratic leaders may exploit the pandemic to suppress opposition, as evidenced by deteriorating rights in 80 countries since the pandemic's start.
- In Uganda, the January 2021 presidential election carries risks of intensified authoritarian control, including bans on rallies, specific restrictions against opposition figures, and internet registration rules, potentially leading to further violence and arrests similar to those following Bobi Wine's arrest in 2020.
- The electric vehicle sector expects 2021 to be a pivotal turning point with over 250 manufacturers, including Volkswagen and General Motors, rolling out new models and 47 battery factories under construction, though 2020 sales declines must be overcome for the projected rapid decade-long growth to materialize.
- Global climate negotiations are set to reach a critical juncture at the COP26 summit in Glasgow in November 2021, where the EU aims to finalize policies for 2050 net zero, China seeks to detail its 2060 neutrality roadmap, and the US aims to rejoin the Paris Agreement under President Biden, despite challenges in securing Congressional support and historical insufficiency of 2015 pledges.
- The global film industry anticipates a shift in market dominance in 2021, with China's box office revenues projected to surpass the US as its industry grows through local content and cinema attendance, while Hollywood faces stagnation, self-censorship pressures due to reliance on Chinese sales, and difficulties exporting culturally specific Chinese blockbusters overseas.
- NASA is preparing to launch the world's first planetary defense trial in July 2021, utilizing kinetic impactor technology to alter the orbit of the asteroid Dimorphos, with the collision event scheduled for 2022 to test the feasibility of deflecting objects that could threaten Earth, despite the extremely low probability of such an impact occurring in the foreseeable future.