Panel
The World in 2025 (I)
Milken InstituteBrian Sullivan, Karen Harris, Carrie Colagia, Pablo Legoreta, Strive Masiwa, Jim McCauken
- The panel, titled "The World in 2025," is characterized by five transformative themes: longevity, capital superabundance, the convergence of technology and finance, demographic shifts, and the evolving nature of human connection.
- Strive Masiwa predicts that by 2025, the world's largest companies may not yet exist, noting that the pace of change has accelerated such that a year now yields progress that previously took a decade.
- Carrie Colagia forecasts a 25% global decrease in cash usage within consumer wallets over the next two years, citing Sweden's cessation of banknote issuance as an early signal of digitization.
- PayPal has issued over $23 million in credit and loans to disaster victims following Typhoon Haiyan to support business recovery and education, demonstrating alternative financing models that bypass traditional credit scores.
- Pablo Legoreta identifies the healthcare sector's shift from a reactive, one-size-fits-all model to "P4 medicine" (predictive, preventative, personalized, and participatory) as a primary driver of value creation in 2025.
- Healthcare spending currently consumes 10–12% of GDP globally, reaching nearly 20% in the U.S., which Legoreta deems unsustainable due to systemic inefficiencies and fragmented data collection.
- Karen Harris and Jim McCaughen describe a "demand-constrained" global economy driven by "capital superabundance," where high savings rates among aging populations in developed nations and China outweigh investment demand.
- McCaughen argues that low interest rates are likely to persist through 2025, as aging demographics will continue to drive demand for income-producing assets like bonds, preventing the inflationary shocks seen pre-1980.
- Harris notes that while 12 billion people may exist in 2025, markets have historically corrected "peak resource" predictions (e.g., oil, food) via technological innovation that creates supply gluts, making permanent shortages unlikely.
- Strive Masiwa highlights that improving longevity and healthcare standards correlates with lower birth rates, suggesting that better health outcomes will naturally slow population growth rather than accelerate overpopulation.
- The panel predicts that wearable technology will transition from fitness tracking to clinical health monitoring, enabling devices to communicate directly with physicians for remote diagnosis of conditions like heart issues.
- Karen Harris contrasts the "barbell" business model trend, where massive platforms like Amazon coexist with thousands of specialized startups, noting that the latter rely on the logistics infrastructure of the former.
- Legoreta warns that regulatory frameworks and societal risk aversion will likely slow the adoption of driverless cars, despite the technology's ability to prevent the 30,000 annual U.S. traffic fatalities.
- Masiwa observes that 50% of Zimbabwean transactions now occur via mobile phones, with over 70% of the population utilizing mobile payments, driven by a lack of trust in traditional paper currency following hyperinflation.
- Harris points out a generational shift toward urbanization, where millennials and younger generations prefer dense city centers over suburbs, reversing previous suburbanization trends in developed economies.
- McCaughen disputes the permanence of urban clustering, suggesting that family formation and the need for schools and medical facilities may eventually drive a return to suburban or exurban living.
- The panelists agree that while technology will automate many tasks (e.g., pilotless freight drones, remote diagnostics), human interaction remains essential for trust, relationship building, and complex decision-making.
- Colagia and Masiwa assert that mobile technology in emerging markets is leapfrogging traditional infrastructure, allowing unbanked populations to access credit, insurance, and global economic participation immediately.
- Legoreta notes that while technology for home MRIs (reducing scan time from 90 minutes to 6 minutes) exists, the organizational incentive structures in healthcare currently impede the shift to patient-centric, preventative care.
- Harris argues that behavioral adoption in health and finance relies on clear economic incentives rather than privacy concerns, citing the rapid uptake of usage-based insurance and mobile banking despite initial skepticism.
- The panel concludes that the most significant disruption in the next decade will come from entrepreneurs who create new incentive structures to drive the adoption of technologies in highly regulated or traditional sectors.