Panel
The World in 2025 (I)
Milken InstituteBrian Sullivan, Karen Harris, Carrie Colagia, Pablo Legoreta, Strive Masiwa, Jim McCauken
- By 2025, the global pace of change is projected to accelerate significantly, with developments occurring in one year that previously required a decade; the largest companies in this timeframe are expected to be those that do not currently exist, potentially including a biotech firm or entities emerging from underrecognized regions like Africa and Latin America.
- The financial system will undergo transformation with physical cash usage expected to decline by 25% globally over the next two years, while Sweden ceases bank money issuance; credit will increasingly rely on alternative financing models such as peer-to-peer lending and behavioral data rather than traditional scores, with mobile devices enabling capital access in regions lacking traditional banking.
- Healthcare will shift from a reactive, one-size-fits-all model to P4 medicine (predictive, preventative, personalized, participatory) by 2025, driven by technology that reduces costs (currently 10–20% of GDP) through waste elimination and data integration, including faster whole-body MRIs, remote diagnoses, and smartphone-based visual diagnostics.
- Demographic trends will show a relatively stable global population with a shift toward longer working lives due to increased longevity, creating high demand for income-producing assets for retirees, while Sub-Saharan Africa, Indonesia, Egypt, and equator nations will maintain youth-heavy demographics with modest financial impact in 2025 compared to developed markets.
- Interest rates are predicted to rise by 2025 but remain lower for longer than anticipated due to bond buying by retirees, set against a backdrop of low multi-decadal rates, potential structural demand shortfalls resembling the late 19th century, and a complex regulatory environment for life sciences over the next 10 to 15 years.
- Consumer technology will evolve from smartphones to wearable devices focused on health data collection and remote doctor communication, while mobile payments will become ubiquitous in Africa with over 70% adoption in Zimbabwe within three years; however, societal adoption of driverless cars and pilotless passenger planes will remain slow or non-existent in 2025 due to safety risks and technological limitations regarding rare events.
- Urbanization will continue to intensify in the developed world, though shifting family needs among aging Millennials may influence suburban moves, while the declining cost of moving people and capital may eventually reduce the necessity for labor clustering; despite technological impersonality, human interaction will remain critical in sectors like healthcare and for creating meaningful experiences.
- Risks to these forecasts include the potential for societal risk aversion to delay transportation technology adoption, regulatory complications for innovations like stem cell research, and the challenge of maintaining economic stability amidst a global shift away from physical currency and traditional financial structures.