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Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued?

20VC with Harry StebbingsJason Lemkin, Rory O'Driscoll, Harry Stebbings
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  • Global software spending growth is projected to reach 5% to 6% annually by 2030 if AI drives significant labor savings, or regress to 2% to 3% above GDP growth otherwise, while public SaaS growth rates are expected to decline to the mid-to-low teens or lower as AI displaces human labor.
  • Corporate America is expected to maintain massive AI budget spending for the next one to two years driven by a "presumption of innocence" regarding success, followed by a retrenchment period occurring two or more years from now when investors realize AI does not replace "everything" and the narrative shifts from "narrative-driven" to "value-driven."
  • Anthropic is projected to potentially reach an $800 billion valuation with a specific $300 billion raise expected in the near future, while revenue is estimated at approximately $15 billion (plus or minus) for the current year and Claude Code usage could grow to 2.5 billion users by the end of the year.
  • Klarna is expected to reduce its workforce from 3,000 to 2,000 employees within a two-year timeframe, whereas autonomous agents are predicted to become ubiquitous in consumer and business apps by 2026, with Replit Version 4 enabling agents to autonomously build three to four features overnight.
  • Figma's valuation is expected to trend down from 10x revenue multiples to growth multiples of 5% or 4% if the company fails to capture the AI-generated prototyping market, potentially missing out on $300 million to $500 million of revenue without immediate AI integration.
  • The transition of the software industry is expected to occur faster than the previous 20-year Salesforce timeline but will not be completed in just two years, creating a "dead zone" for most public SaaS companies with growth rates of 4% to 5% and threatening the viability of "Old School SaaS" companies built pre-2022.
  • The "big three" companies—Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX—are expected to all enter public markets by the end of the current year, with high-capex companies eventually going public after exhausting private capital sources or accelerating a "public-to-private" cycle.
  • Workday's stock price is expected to be influenced by the return of founder Anil Gupta, with the market judging the turnaround's ability to drive faster change and overcome employee resistance within a 12 to 24-month period, though outcomes remain uncertain.
  • Public software stocks are expected to stop declining and compound at normal annual returns of 12% to 15% once price equilibrium is reached, while the current "momentum trade" favoring AI is predicted to dominate valuations until the narrative shifts.
  • Enterprise AI adoption is expected to accelerate significantly by the end of the current year, with "agent-first security products" emerging to address risks and AI SDR tools seeing immediate demand, while adoption in legal and healthcare sectors is predicted to outpace structured software categories due to fewer legacy alternatives.
  • The market is expected to move from a "narrative" phase where AI justifies "any price" despite lack of profitability to a phase where fundamentals like free cash flow dictate prices, potentially creating a "hellish" environment for companies with expensive capital needing to manage transitions.
  • "Founder-led" turnarounds are expected to remain dominant for companies facing core product changes, as only founders possess the specific memory of past trade-offs required to navigate the shift, though more founders are predicted to quit CEO roles in the near future.
  • SMB-focused software growth is expected to be more volatile and churn faster than enterprise software, while "agentic commerce" is predicted to potentially bypass traditional UIs like Shopify within two years, and the "magic button" for fully autonomous complex tasks is estimated to be a few years away.
  • Global software spend is predicted to reach approximately 5% to 6% growth annually by 2030 if AI unlocks significant labor and productivity savings, or it is expected to regress to roughly 2% to 3% above GDP growth otherwise.
  • Corporate America is expected to continue its mega AI budget spend for the next one to two years regardless of immediate ROI, driven by a "presumption of innocence" or success.
  • A retrenchment period is expected to occur two or more years from now, following the current phase of overinvestment and overbetting in the sector.
  • Anthropic is expected to potentially grow its Claude Code usage to 2.5 billion users by the end of the current year.
  • Anthropic's revenue is expected to be approximately $15 billion (plus or minus) on a GAAP basis for the current year.
  • The number of employees at Klarna is expected to decline from 3,000 to 2,000 within a two-year timeframe.
  • Most public SaaS companies are expected to fall into a "dead zone" where growth rates are approximately 5% or 4%, driven by AI efficiency and reduced labor spend.
  • Public software stocks are expected to eventually stop declining and compound at a normal annual return of 12% to 15% once a price equilibrium is reached.
  • Enterprise AI adoption is expected to accelerate significantly by the end of the current year, leading to "jaw-dropping" growth numbers as companies "will" the transformation into existence.
  • It is expected that the "presumption of success" narrative for AI will eventually dissipate, leading to a market correction when investors realize AI does not replace "everything."
  • Figma's valuation is expected to trend down from 10x revenue multiples to 5% or 4% growth multiples if the company fails to capture the AI-generated prototyping market.
  • Figma is expected to miss out on approximately $300 million to $500 million of revenue if it does not successfully integrate AI capabilities into its product roadmap immediately.
  • The transition of the software industry is expected to occur much faster than the 20-year timeline seen with Salesforce, but is not expected to be completed in just two years.
  • It is expected that the "big three" companies—Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX—will all dive for the public markets by the end of the current year.
  • It is expected that companies requiring massive capital expenditure (CapEx) in the foreseeable future will eventually go public because they have exhausted private capital sources.
  • Autonomous agents are expected to become ubiquitous in consumer and business apps by 2026.
  • Replit is expected to introduce features in its next release (Version 4) where agents autonomously build three to four features overnight while the user sleeps.
  • OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to potentially launch or allow "semi-autonomous agents" to run 24-7, despite previous safety concerns.
  • It is expected that the "Old School SaaS" companies built pre-2022 will face significant disruption or obsolescence as AI-native competitors gain traction.
  • The revenue growth rate for the public SaaS category is expected to decline from current levels to the mid-to-low teens, or lower, as AI displaces human labor.
  • Workday's stock price is expected to be influenced by the return of founder Anil Gupta, though it is not certain if this will significantly increase the price within a 12 to 24-month period.
  • It is expected that the "founder CEO" era will continue to be dominant in the current market, with companies like Workday and UiPath feeling the need to bring back founders to drive rapid product changes.
  • It is expected that more founders will quit their CEO roles next, with the podcast hosts joking that the next big departure is a "guessing game."
  • Monday.com is expected to be priced as either a "screaming buy" if its revenue growth remains durable, or priced as if it could "go away entirely" if its product roadmap is not AI-proof.
  • The growth rate of SMB-focused software is expected to be more volatile and churn faster than enterprise software like Salesforce or ServiceNow due to the nature of smaller customer contracts.
  • It is expected that the "voting machine" phase of the market (narrative-driven) will transition to the "weighing machine" phase (value-driven) where fundamentals like free cash flow dictate prices.
  • It is expected that the public markets will become an increasingly "hellish" spot for companies dealing with transitions unless their capital is "dirt cheap."
  • It is expected that the adoption of AI in legal and healthcare sectors will accelerate faster than in structured, existing software categories because those fields had fewer legacy alternatives.
  • It is expected that the "AI SDR" market will see immediate, explosive demand, with new tools booking six-figure deals within their first day of launch.
  • It is expected that "agent-first security products" will emerge to address the risks of autonomous agents, with investment in this space anticipated in the immediate future.
  • It is expected that the "carry" from early-stage investing will drive a shift of investors back to early-stage firms, as the bureaucracy of large funds becomes less attractive compared to the "carry" of massive rounds.
  • It is expected that the "narrative chasm" between private companies like Stripe and public companies like Adyen will persist, with private entities retaining flexibility to respond to change without public market pressure.
  • It is expected that "agentic commerce" will eventually bypass traditional UIs like Shopify, potentially rendering current platform features obsolete within two years.
  • It is expected that the "magic button" for AI to complete complex tasks (like booking travel or building websites) without human intervention is a few years away, not immediate.
  • It is expected that the "SaaS apocalypse" is not actually caused by AI killing software, but rather Wall Street shifting its love from SaaS to AI, creating a temporary mispricing of SaaS stocks.
  • It is expected that the "momentum trade" favoring AI will continue to dominate valuations in the short term, making it a "buffoon" to fight the tape until the narrative shifts.
  • It is expected that "old school" SaaS companies will have to balance financial discipline with AI investment to avoid their revenue dropping to zero in year six.
  • It is expected that the "founder-led" turnaround at companies like Workday will involve faster decision-making and bolder bets compared to a hired executive, though the outcome remains uncertain.
  • It is expected that the "public-to-private" cycle will accelerate for high-capex companies, as the public market becomes a less attractive option for those needing to manage transitions.
  • It is expected that the "narrative" of AI eating everything will justify "any price" for companies like Anthropic in the short term, despite the lack of profitability.
  • It is expected that the "gravity well" of tech will continue to pull down companies that cannot achieve "escape velocity," leaving only a handful of AI leaders standing.
  • It is expected that the "momentum" of AI adoption will create a "canary in the coal mine" scenario where enterprise spending slows if ROI is not realized in one to two years.
  • It is expected that the "narrative" will shift from "AI will eat everything" to a more nuanced reality where AI is amazing but not universal, leading to a correction in valuations.
  • It is expected that the "founder" advantage will be critical for companies facing "core product" changes, as only founders possess the specific memory of past trade-offs required to navigate the shift.
  • It is expected that the "founder" return at Workday will not guarantee a "magic pixie dust" effect, but may result in faster change and quicker bets, even if some fail.
  • It is expected that the "founder" grind will be tested by the "wall of 60," where age and fatigue may lead to more retirements and departures in the CEO cohort.
  • It is expected that the "founder" return at companies like Monday or HubSpot is unlikely, as the market has few candidates who have stepped down and might return.
  • It is expected that the "founder" return at Workday will be judged by the market within 12 months to see if it drives faster change and quicker bets.
  • It is expected that the "founder" return at Workday will be driven by the need for specific knowledge to navigate the "product roadmap" anxiety caused by AI.
  • It is expected that the "founder" return at Workday will be a response to the "high resistance to change" within the employee base, which only a founder can overcome.
  • It is expected that the "founder" return at Workday will be a gamble on the company's ability to "add AI" to a "mature, established category" without a "magic fix."
  • It is expected that the "founder" return at Workday will be a test of whether the "founder" can drive change in an environment where "most of your employees do not want to do the work."
  • It is expected that the "founder" return at Workday will be a response to the "board" wanting to "increase share price over the long term" despite the "high resistance to change."
  • It is expected that the "founder" return at Workday will be a response to the "board" wanting the "founder" back "right now" due to the "too much disruption."
  • It is expected that the "founder" return at Workday will be a response to the "board" wanting the "founder" back because of the "high resistance to change" and the "difficulty to drive change" with an outside CEO.
  • It is expected that the "founder" return at Workday will be a response to the "board" wanting the "founder" back because of the "difficulty to drive change" and the "high resistance to change."