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Interview

Thy neighbours, beggared: Trump’s opening tariffs

  • President Donald Trump has announced 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico, effectively rendering the USMCA and NAFTA historical documents.

  • An additional 10% tariff has been imposed on Chinese imports on top of existing levies, affecting an estimated $400 billion worth of goods previously targeted in the first term.

  • Total value of Canadian and Mexican goods subject to new tariffs is approximately $900 billion, representing a more sudden and comprehensive economic disruption than the gradual tariffs of the first Trump term.

  • The legal justification for these tariffs cites a "national emergency" driven by illegal migration and fentanyl flows across borders, utilizing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act rather than traditional trade statutes.

  • President Trump's stated goals for the tariffs include reducing trade deficits, re-industrializing the US economy, and forcing foreign nations to address border security issues, though no clear off-ramp exists for removing the tariffs.

  • Canada has announced a counter-tariff on $155 billion of US goods, with immediate implementation of 25% levies on $30 billion of products specifically targeting Republican states to exert political pressure.

  • Mexico has vowed retaliation but has not yet detailed the scope of its response; it faces an asymmetric economic game where it is more dependent on the US market (75% of its exports) than vice versa.

  • China's response has been muted, consisting only of a threat to file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization, a mechanism described as having no teeth in the context of US policy.

  • Economics editor Henry Kerr noted that while tariffs function as a coherent negotiating tactic due to US market leverage, the economic argument regarding trade deficits is fundamentally flawed as deficits are driven by domestic saving and consumption patterns.

  • The administration's strategy relies on the assumption that financial market volatility and economic disruption will eventually constrain Trump, despite his stated willingness to tolerate short-term pain for long-term gains.

  • Future tariffs are expected against the European Union and specific UK products, indicating that the current trade war is an escalation rather than an isolated event.

  • Boom Supersonic, a Denver-based startup, successfully flew its XB-1 demonstrator aircraft, marking the first time since 2003 that a civilian plane has broken the sound barrier.

  • Boom Supersonic aims to have a test version of its commercial supersonic aircraft operational by 2029, contingent on successfully testing a ground version of its custom-built engine by the end of the current year.

  • Unlike the Concorde, Boom's design utilizes carbon fiber airframes and new engines featuring single-crystal hollow fan blades, aiming for improved fuel efficiency and lower costs rather than serving as a national vanity project.

  • Competitor Aerion abandoned its supersonic project in 2021 due to financial constraints; unlike Aerion, Boom Supersonic does not plan to eliminate the sonic boom, meaning its aircraft will likely be restricted to supersonic speeds only over the ocean.

  • The economics of supersonic travel have shifted since the 1960s, with a potential increase in the demographic capable of affording high-speed travel and significantly improved engine technology.

  • A trend of "obligatory standing ovations" has become ubiquitous in London's West End, even for performances widely considered poor.

  • This phenomenon is attributed to multiple factors, including the emulation of TV talent show behavior, the influence of Broadway traditions, and the high cost of tickets which motivates audiences to demand satisfaction.

  • Theatre columnist Andrew Miller identifies the post-pandemic return to venues as the turning point, where audiences adopted raucous habits, including standing out of sheer relief at being back in theatres, which has since become habitual.

  • The trend has spread beyond theatre, with similar "inflation" in applause observed at Lord's Cricket Ground, where rare events like a 50-run score now routinely elicit standing ovations compared to the pre-pandemic era.

  • Audience members and observers have expressed concern that the standing ovation has lost its meaning, becoming a coercive ritual where applause reflects the audience's own enthusiasm rather than the quality of the performance.

  • The "Obligatory Standing Ovation" (OSO) is now a routine occurrence, with some audiences feeling the rare instance of not standing up provides a refreshing validation of critical assessment.