Interview
Thy neighbours, beggared: Trump’s opening tariffs
The EconomistTrump, Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Henry Kerr, Jeff Carr, Andrew Miller, Tom Trevithan, Jonathan Brown, Stephen Katz
- US companies, particularly automotive manufacturers trading with Canada and Mexico, face expected serious economic disruption, with tariffs predicted to drive additional US inflation if sustained through the current year.
- While the US economy is anticipated to suffer disruption, the severity is projected to be less pronounced than the impact on the Canadian and Mexican economies, though financial markets are expected to react with stock and bond adjustments immediately upon announcement.
- Market volatility and economic strain are viewed as potential constraints on policy, despite leadership readiness to tolerate short-term pain, with tariffs on the European Union and other products expected to define a prolonged trade war rather than a singular event.
- Legal challenges to the tariff justification involving migrants and fentanyl are expected to arise, though courts are historically likely to defer to the White House on national security grounds, making congressional intervention a high barrier requiring significant Republican opposition.
- Canada plans retaliatory tariffs of 25% on $155 billion of US goods, with immediate measures affecting $30 billion starting Tuesday, specifically targeting goods concentrated in Republican states to exert economic pressure.
- The justification for these tariffs remains undefined regarding potential satisfactions for Canada or Mexico, as the administration views the action as a purely economic measure rather than a negotiating tactic.
- Boom Supersonic targets having a ground-test engine available by the end of the current year, with a test version of the aircraft expected to enter flight by 2029.
- The company intends to design proprietary engines and airframes rather than adapting military technology, aiming for an aircraft that burns less fuel than the Concorde using lighter materials like carbon fiber.
- Future supersonic flights are expected to be restricted to subsonic speeds over land to avoid sonic booms, with a "VIPs only" operational model similar to the Concorde era.
- The return of supersonic commercial flight is contingent on the successful completion of these difficult engineering tasks, with the possibility of commercial availability dependent on long-term project success.
- In the West End, standing ovations are expected to persist post-pandemic as a "meaningless ritual" or "ovation inflation," a habit that has stuck despite performances being subpar.
- This trend of excessive applause is anticipated to spread to Lord's Cricket Ground, where standing ovations may replace standard applause for achievements like scoring 50, even as word eventually spreads if the "magic of theatre fails."
- Concert audiences are expected to struggle to provide genuine applause, viewing the encore as a chore due to the normalization of irrational exuberance across the West.