Tony Blair on Brexit's second referendum

Advocacy for a Second Referendum

• Tony Blair supports a final vote on Brexit to resolve current parliamentary gridlock, explicitly stating this would not be a rerun of the 2016 referendum.
• The proposed vote would be a judgment based on two years of learning, contrasting a "soft Brexit" (staying in economic structures but losing rule-making power) against a "clean break" (full separation with economic damage).
• Blair argues Parliament lacks a majority for any single Brexit proposition, making a return to the public the only logical recourse after the failure of the Chequers deal.
• He suggests the referendum question could offer a binary choice (Stay vs. Clean Break) or potentially a three-way option including a "soft Brexit," though he doubts public appetite for the latter.
• Blair warns that a "soft Brexit" mimicking Norway or Switzerland fails the political mandate of the 2016 vote because it requires abiding by EU rules without a seat at the table.

Economic and Political Consequences of Brexit

• Blair cites specific economic shifts since the 2016 referendum: the UK has moved from the fastest-growing G7 economy to the slowest, the currency has significantly devalued, and the promise of an extra £350 million for the NHS has not materialized.
• He highlights a £40 billion bill associated with leaving the EU and notes that market devaluation was a political act reflecting a belief that the UK would become poorer, not a standard market correction.
• He characterizes the current UK government as being in "chronic disarray," more so than any he has seen in his lifetime in a major developed country.
• Blair predicts a general election would be a mistake for the Conservative Party, given their previous struggles, and believes the party cannot afford another referendum if the outcome is "Leave" and the process must then be respected.

European Reform and Geopolitics

• Blair argues that the EU must reform regarding immigration and freedom of movement to address the root causes of Brexit, noting that the core issue is often immigration from outside Europe rather than within it.
• He states that Brexit is a geopolitical disaster that undermines Western security, particularly as the US pivots its focus to the China relationship.
• He emphasizes that Europe must remain united and strong economically and politically to maintain global influence in the absence of a fully reliable American ally.

Middle East Diplomacy and Trump Administration

• Blair maintains contact with the Trump administration, specifically Jared Kushner, regarding the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
• He asserts that the Trump administration correctly identifies that resolving the Palestinian issue requires integrating the Israeli-Arab relationship rather than focusing solely on Israel-Palestine negotiations.
• Blair notes that a resolution is unlikely without addressing the "catastrophe" in Gaza and building solutions from the ground up alongside top-down negotiations.
• He expresses skepticism about an imminent "post-Netanyahu" era, observing that Israeli politics currently offer no clear alternative leadership.

Center Politics and the Future of Liberalism

• Blair contends that "center politics" has not died but is currently unrepresented due to the dominance of extreme factions in both the Conservative and Labour parties.
• He argues that a majority of British citizens would reject a choice between a Brexit-dominated Tory party and a Corbyn-led Labour party if a viable center-ground alternative existed.
• He credits the UK's historical social mobility and economic success to the "New Labour" center-left approach of combining enterprise with social justice.

Institute for Global Change and Personal Reflections

• Blair consolidated his post-office organizations into a single non-profit Institute for Global Change to avoid the confusion and trouble caused by separating charitable work from business ventures.
• The Institute now employs approximately 250 people across 30 countries, focusing on governance, counter-extremism, coexistence, and renewing the center of Western politics.
• Blair identifies his primary regret regarding the post-9/11 era as a misunderstanding of the depth of radical Islamist threats.
• Conversely, he lists achievements including radical poverty reduction, minimum wage implementation, the Northern Ireland peace process, and hosting the London Olympics.
• He maintains that his work in Africa and the Middle East is funded by business reserves to support a global liberal order and globalization.