Interview
Tony Blair on Brexit's second referendum
- Parliamentary gridlock is expected to resolve only through a general election or a second referendum, potentially sending the public back to the ballot box to judge whether to proceed with Brexit or remain in the EU following a period of paralysis.
- The Conservative Party faces significant risks of electoral error if it pursues a general election focused on the Brexit issue, while the Labour Party is currently 15 to 20 percentage points behind in support yet holds a possibility of winning the next election due to Conservative disarray.
- A second referendum is anticipated to serve as a distinct judgment based on lessons from the preceding two years rather than a rerun of the 2016 vote, offering a clear choice that could prevent a populist backlash.
- Economic projections indicate that a clean break Brexit will cause short-term, medium-term, and potentially long-term damage, including a 40 billion pound cost that contradicts promises of funding for the health service.
- The UK economy is predicted to remain the slowest growing in the G7 in the short term, while the currency may remain substantially devalued due to market expectations of long-term economic decline.
- Public sentiment suggests a rejection of a "soft Brexit" model that maintains economic ties while ceding political influence, which is viewed as "the worst of both worlds."
- The government may be forced to postpone Article 50 negotiations if a final agreement cannot be reached, and a future vote to leave the EU would mandate the government to end current political debates and forge a new path.
- European Union reforms regarding immigration, freedom of movement, and the integration of eurozone members at different rates are expected to occur, with countries like France and Belgium likely implementing measures to prevent wage-undercutting imports.
- Geopolitical outlooks identify the US-China relationship as the pivotal dynamic of the 21st century, while emphasizing the necessity for a united and strong Europe to maintain global influence.
- Middle East strategies posit that the peace process must be built from the bottom up, with urgent attention required for the "catastrophe" in Gaza, while Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to remain prime minister without an immediate election.
- The Institute for Global Change plans to employ approximately 250 staff across 30 countries to advocate for an open-minded view of the world and support the international liberal order.
- The political landscape may see a shift where voters reject a Brexit-dominated Conservative Party and a Corbyn-led Labour Party in favor of a centrist alternative, though the Labour Party is expected to struggle to return to the center ground in the near future.