Interview
Tracking Political Manipulation Through Social Media - Samantha Bradshaw
- New entrants are projected to experiment with crude automation before evolving into sophisticated algorithmic gaming strategies by 2020.
- Disinformation tactics are expected to shift from random content dissemination to targeted content creation around specific societal triggers.
- Campaigns are predicted to migrate from Twitter and Facebook in the US to WhatsApp in India, following user concentration patterns.
- Disinformation is forecast to expand onto image and video platforms like Instagram and YouTube due to the superior retention impact of visual media.
- Fake accounts are anticipated to proliferate on Twitter due to easy API access, while those on Facebook are expected to remain rarer but more impactful within trusted communities.
- Platform incentives may shift as advertisers cease paying for bot views, potentially forcing the deletion of fake accounts to preserve market value.
- Content-focused regulations like Germany's NetzDG are expected to carry risks of censoring legitimate criticism and aiding authoritarian regimes in silencing dissent.
- While platforms will remain opaque, standard tracing of algorithmic intention and design principles is anticipated to become a norm for understanding content delivery.
- Selective exposure to information is expected to persist as a fundamental human trait, requiring education as the primary mitigation strategy regardless of fake news removal.
- Social media platforms face potential "combustion" where user de-platforming could catalyze the adoption of non-advertising-based business models.
- Continued consolidation of major platforms may lock users into single ecosystems, potentially exacerbating the scale of disinformation impacts.
- Ongoing investigations into the Internet Research Agency will provide public knowledge, though specific policy outcomes from the Mueller Report remain uncertain.
- The ratio of junk news to professional content is predicted to rise or remain high during the 2020 US election cycle as platforms fail to implement timely solutions.
- Significant innovation in manipulation techniques is expected during the 2020 US election driven by high financial stakes in campaign media strategies.
- Deep fakes are not expected to become a dominant threat in high-literacy environments due to detection research, though they may gain traction in low-literacy settings.
- Governments are projected to increase focus on technology and politics regulation, with figures like Senator Warren and Damian Collins anticipated to lead efforts.
- Political polarization in the US is expected to widen over the next 20 years if current societal anger and communication deficits persist.
- Increased regulatory focus is hoped to foster proper governance rather than inhibit technological progress.
- The 2019 Canadian election is anticipated as a potential case study for disinformation, with fears regarding the rise of populist and anti-immigration narratives.
- Brexit-related rhetoric and disinformation are expected to remain embedded in the UK political landscape for several years.
- An increase in junk news is predicted for the 2020 US election, contingent on the failure of platforms to resolve information integrity issues before the cycle concludes.