Panel, Conference Presentation
Trust, Truth, and Democracy | Global Conference 2025
Milken InstituteSewell Chan, Max Boot, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Oliver Darcy, Kevin Merida, Jessica Yellin
- Journalistic persuasion through heightened coverage volume is expected to fail as it primarily reinforces existing beliefs, while the current administration's story scope is projected to expand significantly beyond the White House to include federal agencies, the cabinet, and Congress.
- Corporate owners with pending business interests may pressure journalists to settle with the administration or refrain from aggressive reporting, potentially causing trust on the left to erode regarding media independence.
- Trust in the news media, the Supreme Court, Congress, universities, and all institutions is predicted to continue degrading and potentially escalate throughout the Trump administration due to the "enemy of the people" narrative and societal polarization.
- Republicans are expected to remain skeptical of mainstream media unless coverage aligns with their cause, likely relying more on alternative outlets like Newsmax, OAN, or social media influencers, a trend that will not slow down.
- Algorithmic reinforcement on platforms like X, Facebook, and TikTok is projected to continue diminishing the prominence of factual information while amplifying conspiracy theories and bias-reinforcing content.
- The number of newspapers is expected to disappear at a rate of approximately 2.5 per week, leaving roughly 55 million people without a community news source, though non-profit models and local consortia, such as a growing group of 20 Los Angeles organizations, are being pursued to rebuild the ecosystem.
- Major television news organizations face business model collapses unless they successfully transition, while legacy media may persist in 10 years driven by owner financial capacity but faces uncertainties regarding future relevance and audience size.
- Journalists are expected to face increased challenges from the administration, including exclusion from the press room, threats to defund NPR and PBS, and the continued dismantling of the Voice of America.
- Newsrooms may struggle with groupthink and caution to avoid reporting on unverified topics, while the act of fact-checking is expected to be further discredited as a "liberal choice."
- Regulating social media to reduce false content is anticipated to be extremely difficult due to the First Amendment, likely requiring self-policing by responsible owners who are currently scarce.
- The media industry is expected to shift toward collaboration rather than competition, with legacy outlets viewing independent journalists as brand extensions, though trust initiatives like the Trust Project are predicted to remain small-scale without significant expansion.
- No large-scale example has been observed of social media buttressing liberal democracy, and there is uncertainty regarding whether a viable democracy can exist in the current internet age given the trend toward global negative political impacts.
- It is considered impossible for a president to win 49 out of 50 states today due to societal fracture, and the political landscape is expected to remain broken due to demand for partisan, non-factual information.
- There is no clear path identified to resolve current political fissures before potential democracy collapse, though innovation and entrepreneurship are needed to support fact-based voices and help audiences discern trustworthy information.
- Expanding news literacy education in schools is necessary to help audiences understand their biases, and the media will need to continue producing truth while acknowledging the existence of populations that believe lies.
- Some journalists may leave their posts when work conflicts with owner interests, while others will remain to support their families until the conflict becomes unendurable.