Conference Presentation, Panel
U.S. Overview: Political and Economic Currents After the Midterm Elections
Milken InstitutePhilippa Thomas, Adrienne Elrod, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Steve Krouskos, Sara Latham, Frank Luntz, Ian Shorris, Geoff Trinkline, Seema Shah, Rachel White, Fonda Ahan, Özgür Önder, Ron Kerr, Tony Fratto, Ryan, Darius Baxter
- The U.S. economy is anticipated to grow between 2.5% and 3% with low inflation through 2018 and 2019, with significant downside risks in trade, housing, and monetary policy normalization expected to materialize after 2019; while no near-term recession is predicted, the Federal Reserve is expected to bear primary responsibility for mitigating any downturn due to congressional inaction.
- Long-term fiscal challenges are described as severe, with forecasts indicating a need for increased revenue and spending control over the next five to ten years to address the federal budget outlook, alongside predictions that the administration will fund the government minimally over the next two years and avoid major infrastructure initiatives.
- Economic policy expectations include continued upside from tax reform and deregulation, though some experts warn that trade strategies may be economically damaging and fail to address fundamental issues with China, while others argue the regulatory state has been effectively shut down without added costly regulations.
- Political risks include a difficult re-election environment for President Trump if wage growth remains low, with the administration likely to blame Democrats and rely on executive actions regarding trade and immigration.
- The 2020 Democratic primary is expected to feature 30 to 35 candidates filing in the first quarter of 2019, focusing on policy debates rather than personal attacks, with a final field likely including Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Cory Booker or Kirsten Gillibrand.
- Structural challenges are identified as critical, specifically the failing U.S. K-12 education system which is cited as the greatest policy challenge and a potential cause for long-term loss against China, requiring immediate educational focus to prevent societal degradation.
- Social and cultural concerns emphasize the necessity of family cohesion to heal society, with warnings that failing to prioritize children through specific daily interactions and vacations will lead to a society where technology supersedes family bonds.