Seema Shah
Showing 1–8 of 8 transcripts.
- Milken Institute1h 0m
The New Macro Playbook | Global Conference 2026
Stephanie Ruhle, André Esteves, George Goncalves, Karen Karniol-Tambour, Seema Shah, Jeffrey Solomon
Global capital flows are shifting from a U.S.-centric model to diversified inflows in emerging markets and resource economies, driven by a transition from efficiency-based globalization to sovereign security-focused supply chains. This structural change, characterized by modern mercantilism and massive AI infrastructure spending, has created a bifurcated economy where fiscal deficits and geopolitical fragmentation fuel persistent inflation while prompting investors to seek physical assets over traditional equities. As nations fragment into isolated economic blocks and governments face rising risks of financial repression, investors must navigate these divergent currency zones to identify opportunities in captive markets protected by national industrial policies.
- Milken Institute1h 0m
Capital Markets 2025: Shaping and Scaling the Future | Global Conference 2025
Sonali Basak, Sumer Dewan, Jim Esposito, Viswas Raghavan, Seema Shah, Jeffrey Solomon
Panelists led by Seema Kenji analyze a structural macroeconomic shift where sovereign debt burdens have transferred to private sectors, creating a new environment characterized by the Trump administration's tariff and deregulation triad and a decade of anticipated high volatility. While market dislocations remain orderly and liquidity persists, regional dynamics are pivoting toward Asia as India and ASEAN emerge as critical growth engines and internal trading blocs. Looking forward, the consensus emphasizes corporate stress testing and long-term conviction in US assets, with technology and scenario analysis serving as primary drivers for navigating the upcoming period of fiscal dominance and reserve currency trust deficits.
- Milken Institute38 min
Countering Warning Signs | Global Conference 2024
Josh Barro, Mark Lindbloom, Raymond McGuire, Asutosh Padhi, Seema Shah, Jeffrey Solomon, Ray McGuire
Panelists led by Jeffrey Solomon and Ray McGuire conclude that structural shifts such as deglobalization and domestic infrastructure spending will sustain a "higher for longer" rate environment with nominal yields stabilizing between 4.25% and 4.75%. While consumer spending remains bifurcated with resilient high-income earners and distressed lower-income households, the economy continues to absorb higher costs due to robust corporate balance sheets and productivity gains driven by technology. Ultimately, investors must recalibrate valuations to account for persistent inflation and tail risks, recognizing that the labor market serves as the primary indicator before a potential systemic downturn or prolonged expansion occurs.
- Milken Institute1h 1m
The Macroeconomic Outlook: A Balancing Act
Komal Sri-Kumar, James McCormack, Seema Shah, Nathan Sheets, Christopher Smart, Bryan Whalen
A panel of experts forecasts a solid yet modest global economic recovery driven by a dovish Federal Reserve pivot and easing inflation, while noting that robust U.S. corporate growth and China's shift toward consumption support emerging stability. Despite this progress, significant risks persist including elevated global debt levels, deteriorating credit covenants, and the threat of prolonged trade tensions that may force tariffs into a permanent structural reality for businesses. Participants warn that complacency remains dangerous given potential black swan events ranging from European political instability to a U.S. debt ceiling standoff, suggesting a market correction is likely before the current expansion concludes.
- Milken Institute57 min
U.S. Overview: Political and Economic Currents After the Midterm Elections
Philippa Thomas, Adrienne Elrod, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Steve Krouskos, Sara Latham, Frank Luntz, Ian Shorris, Geoff Trinkline, Seema Shah, Rachel White, Fonda Ahan, Özgür Önder, Ron Kerr, Tony Fratto, Ryan, Darius Baxter
Panelists projected U.S. economic growth of 2.5% to 3% through 2019 while warning of severe long-term fiscal deficits and stagnant productivity driven by an education gap. The discussion highlighted distinct political dynamics where the Democratic primary is expected to be policy-driven despite a dominant Republican base, alongside a critique of incoherent trade strategies that harm consumers without securing strategic advantages against China. Ultimately, experts concluded that restoring societal civility and addressing K-12 educational failures are critical prerequisites for the nation's future competitiveness and the American Dream.
- Milken Institute56 min
Macroeconomic Outlook
Komal Sri-Kumar, Rishi Kapoor, Tad Rivelle, Seema Shah, Nathan Sheets, Christopher Smart
A panel of five prominent global investors, including Seema Shah and Tad Revell, convened to debate diverging forecasts regarding the US business cycle, global debt sustainability, and the timing of a potential recession between 2020 and 2021. While participants agreed on significant risks from central bank tightening and geopolitical fragmentation, they offered contrasting views on whether current leverage levels and asset prices signal an imminent systemic crisis or a prolonged period of reflation. The session concluded with a detailed analysis of tail risks ranging from Chinese debt opacity to oil price shocks, emphasizing the difficulty of forecasting economic fundamentals in an environment of rapidly shifting monetary policies.
- Milken Institute1h 0m
Strategy and Leadership in an Age of Disruption
Adam Lashinsky, Jorge Paulo Lemann, Jim McCaughan, Tim Sloan, Julie Sweet, Seth Caller, Jatrice Martel-Gator, Major Ken Tarr, Seema Shah
Leaders from Accenture, Wells Fargo, and 3G Capital discussed how accelerating disruption forces major corporations to shift from control-based leadership to innovation-focused cultures, with artificial intelligence becoming a ubiquitous utility rather than a niche experiment. Panelists detailed specific strategies for this transition, including Wells Fargo's restructuring into unified customer-centric models, Accenture's rapid sprints that delivered complex solutions in weeks, and 3G Capital's internal units dedicated to self-disruption. To sustain these advancements, the group emphasized that ethical AI adoption and proactive workforce reskilling are critical, noting that successful organizations are reinvesting automation savings into talent development while addressing diversity gaps to prevent systemic flaws.
- Milken Institute1h 0m
Monetary Policy: What's Left in the Toolbox?
Sebastian Mallaby, Matt Freund, Emanuel Friedman, William Lee, Seema Shah, John Taylor
Former Fed Chair John Taylor and fellow experts John Lee, Seema Shah, and Manny Friedman convened to argue that monetary policy must revert to a rules-based framework centered on price signals rather than discretionary market manipulation. The panelists collectively warned that the current reliance on low rates and quantitative easing has failed to stimulate Main Street investment, necessitating coordinated fiscal action and warning that political interference threatens central bank independence. Looking ahead, the group identified the structural inevitability of a return to the zero lower bound and the potential for digital currencies to bypass traditional constraints, urging a shift toward systematic policy to manage future global financial risks.