Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat
Uber's Dara Khosrowshahi: Unlocking a Trillion-Dollar Opportunity
- The AI ecosystem and autonomous vehicle (AV) development are projected to mature with increasing model sophistication and massive investment, unlocking a trillion-plus dollar total addressable market (TAM).
- AV technology costs are expected to drop significantly to a range of $300-$400 per unit for solid-state LiDAR, enabling four to five deployments this year across two U.S. locations and two international sites including Munich.
- Core mobility growth in the top 20 global markets is forecast to continue at teen rates, while growth in less dense markets, including suburbs and secondary cities, is anticipated to run 1.5 to 3 times faster.
- The portfolio of growth bets, comprising Reserve, Uber for Business, grocery, and multi-wheelers, is expected to expand faster than the core business, with the direct business powering retailers' front-ends growing at very high rates despite not currently being profitable.
- Cross-platform users utilizing both rides and delivery are projected to spend three times more than single-service users, a figure the company plans to leverage for retention alongside membership initiatives.
- Membership revenue is expected to grow from a current run-rate of over $2 billion with 36 million members, with penetration in the mobility segment expected to mirror delivery success and retention remaining significantly higher than non-members.
- The company intends to shift approximately 50% of monthly consumers using the service one to two times per month to three to four times, while "Wait and Save" is expanding to over 30 countries with average savings of 9% per ride.
- Grocery basket sizes are expected to increase substantially over time as consumers shift from top-up habits to weekly shopping, with store selection outside the U.S. up approximately 35%.
- Capital deployment will be executed following significant free cash flow generation, with plans to move 50% of low-frequency users to higher frequency usage while maintaining a strategy of smart capital allocation.
- The business model is projected to remain hedged against economic environments where weaker economies might lower supply costs and surge pricing, driving demand without signs of consumers trading down.
- Gross bookings growth is expected to remain healthy for at least the next couple of quarters, with platform frequency continuing to hit all-time highs.
- The leadership team expects to drive bottom-line growth by leveraging the profit and loss statement, citing a recent 35% bottom-line growth against 18% top-line growth, while making active trade-offs between mobility and delivery to optimize margins.
- Growth in the delivery market, including store count rising 14% year-on-year and merchant-funded offers redeeming at $1 billion per quarter, is expected to mutually reinforce demand and supply with the mobility market.