Ukraine war: what will winter bring?

Diplomatic and Strategic Context

• President Zelenskyy visited the United States, marking his first departure from Ukraine since the war began.
• The primary objectives of the trip were to secure further military support and reinforce international backing.
• The Economist conducted interviews with three top Ukrainian officials: President Zelenskyy, General Zaluzhny, and Commander Sirsky.

War Aims and Stated Positions

• The Ukrainian leadership insists the war will not conclude until Ukraine fully restores its 1991 borders.
• Zelenskyy explicitly rejected the concept of freezing front lines, describing it as "very dangerous."
• While discussing a potential non-military return of Crimea, Zelenskyy suggested this could occur via regime change in Russia rather than immediate military conquest.
• Zelenskyy expressed that while he holds hate toward specific aggressors, he operates primarily out of love for his nation, neighbors, and relatives.

Current Operational Conditions

• Russian attacks on Ukraine's power grid, including the use of Iranian-made drones, have eliminated approximately 50% of the country's power generation capacity.
• These attacks are causing widespread blackouts, creating significant psychological strain on the civilian population.
• Russia is currently indigenizing the production of drone systems used in these attacks.
• A potential escalation risk exists if Iran supplies Russia with short-range or medium-range ballistic missiles, such as the Zoltikar system.

Russian Offensive Capabilities and Timing

• Sources indicate Russia is rebuilding munition and manpower stocks behind the Ural Mountains.
• A fresh Russian offensive is anticipated to begin potentially as early as late January, most likely in February, or by March at the latest.
• The Russian force is estimated to include approximately 200,000 troops ready for counter-offensives in multiple directions (south, east, and potentially Belarus).
• Specific targets for a Russian advance include Odessa, Nikolaev, and the direction of Kyiv from Belarus.

Geopolitical and Tactical Assessments

• Putin's visit to Belarus on December 19 coincided with heightened military activity, though skepticism remains regarding a major northern assault due to Belarusian depletion of ammunition supplies.
• Putin's primary territorial objective is identified as capturing the remainder of the Donetsk province to claim total liberation of the Donbas region.
• From a Ukrainian perspective, the most strategic offensive target would be Melitopol, which would allow HIMARS rocket launchers to target Russian supply lines to Crimea.
• Public opinion in Ukraine is overwhelmingly aligned with total de-occupation; roughly 95% to 96% of the population rejects any compromise on occupied territory.

Historical Context and Future Outlook

• Ukrainian leadership cites 2014 and February 24 as the two greatest strategic mistakes, with the latter being the tragic point where compromise options were effectively lost.
• The war is characterized by intense, World War II-style combat in the East, involving heavy artillery, fire, and shelter warfare.
• The conflict is projected to continue for months or years of grueling struggle before a resolution is achieved.