Interview, Conference Presentation
Ukraine war: what will winter bring?
- Conflict is expected to persist without resolution until Ukraine secures its 1991 borders, with a frozen front line deemed dangerous.
- Material support risks include the potential for Russia to indigenize Iranian drone production and the possible supply of Iranian short- to medium-range ballistic missiles, such as the Zoltikar system, which would enable relentless attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
- Russian forces are actively rebuilding munitions and manpower behind the Urals, preparing approximately 200,000 troops for a multi-directional offensive estimated to occur most likely in February, though potentially as early as late January or as late as March.
- Proposed Russian attack vectors include threats to Odessa and Nikolaev, an advance toward Belarus and Kyiv, and efforts to capture the remainder of the Donetsk province to fully liberate the Donbass, with heightened military activity in Belarus observed following Putin's visit on December 19th.
- While Belarus has likely diverted significant supplies to Russia, there is skepticism regarding the feasibility of a serious northern attack launched directly from Belarusian territory.
- Strategic expectations for Ukraine include a potentially grueling conflict lasting months to years, with public sentiment indicating over 95% support for the de-occupation of all territory.
- Future Ukrainian offensive ambitions may focus on liberating Melitopol to position HIMARS rocket launchers within range of Russian supply lines extending to Crimea, while leadership explores non-military avenues or renegotiation of Crimea's status contingent on a Russian defeat or regime change.