Interview
War in Ukraine: how could this end?
- Russian military strategy exhibits deep dysfunction, characterized by armored columns operating without infantry screening or air cover in urban areas east of Kyiv, a tactical error described as a failure to learn from combat losses.
- Civilian casualties are mounting and domestic mobilization is not yet feasible for Vladimir Putin because the population was misled by the "special military operation" narrative, which was intended to conclude in days, making general mobilization politically perilous.
- Putin's regime is experiencing internal instability driven by the inability to accept the campaign's failure, leading to paranoia and the potential scapegoating of subordinates to preserve the leader's power base.
- Reports indicate two senior FSB officials involved in invasion planning have been placed under house arrest, signaling a potential prelude to internal purges or a coup attempt.
- The security apparatus faces a "starting pistol" dynamic where officials fearing arrest may act preemptively to protect themselves against potential purges.
- Escalation risks include the potential use of chemical weapons by Russian forces, which would pressure Western governments to intervene, though direct military confrontation remains a low-probability outcome due to limited appetite for direct NATO-Russia conflict in the Biden administration.
- Western intervention options for chemical weapon incidents would likely be limited to deploying protective units rather than combat forces.
- There is a risk that Russia could escalate by striking arms depots in Poland or convoys in western Ukraine, a move that could trigger a conventional NATO-Russia clash and potentially spiral into nuclear exchange.
- Current tensions represent the highest prospect of war between Russia and the West since the 1980s, though officials urge against complacency while noting these catastrophic scenarios are not the "best case" outlook.
- Russian tactics of indiscriminate artillery and civilian targeting aim to break Ukrainian morale and force President Zelensky to consider a negotiated settlement to spare the population, rather than continuing the fight.
- The speaker's optimal outcome is a negotiated settlement where the Zelensky government remains in power and voluntarily agrees to recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea and a pledge not to join NATO, contingent on the full withdrawal of Russian forces from all occupied territories.
- This scenario assumes a post-conflict Ukraine would still pursue integration with the West while avoiding further invasion by a Russian leader, specifically Putin.