Interview
War in Ukraine: how could this end?
- The conflict is expected to escalate further while peace talks remain stalled, with Russian military operations continuing to feature unshielded columns that reflect deep systemic dysfunction.
- The Russian leadership is projected to endure high internal anxiety and political instability, potentially triggered by the house arrest of senior FSB officials and the risk of a coup if key figures perceive imminent arrest or death.
- Vladimir Putin is unlikely to call for general mobilization given unprepared public sentiment, though his tenure may persist due to the survival risks associated with admitting failure, while his paranoia regarding scapegoating remains a key factor.
- The war may force a transition from a televised event to a personal reality for Russian families as death notices increase, creating a potential catalyst for Putin to consider using chemical weapons if the situation deteriorates further.
- Western governments, including the US, UK, and France, are not expected to launch airstrikes in response to chemical weapon use, and while the no-fly zone debate may revive, there is a distinct lack of appetite for direct engagement or shooting down Russian aircraft.
- NATO may debate deploying CBRN protection units to chemical weapon sites, but the deployment of combat forces on Ukrainian soil remains a low-probability outcome despite growing pressure following potential atrocities.
- Escalation risks include Russian strikes on arms depots in Poland or supply convoys, which could trigger a conventional NATO-Russia clash with the potential to spiral into nuclear exchange; the current risk level is characterized as the highest since the 1980s.
- President Zelensky faces a difficult choice between enduring indiscriminate civilian attacks or pursuing a negotiated settlement that recognizes Russian control of Crimea and excludes Ukraine from NATO to spare his population.
- The best-case negotiated outcome involves preserving the Zelensky government with a Russian withdrawal from all occupied territories, allowing Ukraine to pursue a Western path, while a scenario where Russia retains Crimea is viewed as a condition under which Putin would not launch a new invasion.
- No party is expected to emerge favorable in the immediate future, and the best-case scenario requires avoiding the escalation to weapons of mass destruction, though the current trajectory suggests no resolution without significant hardship.