Interview, Conference Presentation
War in Ukraine: how far will Putin go?
- Vladimir Putin perceives the conflict as an existential state of war against the West and NATO, driven by a calculus that escalation serves as a narcotic to mask military failures or external pressure.
- Experts warn that Putin possesses both the willingness and capability to escalate to extreme levels, potentially utilizing battlefield nuclear weapons as a shield of impunity rather than a traditional deterrent.
- Specific concerns include the open discussion in Russia and Ukraine regarding tactical nuclear strikes, citing Putin's historical rhetoric that "we will go to heaven" while the West "rots."
- Russian officials, including Sergei Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, are making unfounded allegations of US chemical weapons programs in Ukraine to manufacture a pretext for Russian chemical weapon deployment.
- A primary pathway for escalation involves Russian sabotage of Western arms depots in Eastern Europe, such as those in Poland, which could pressure NATO to invoke Article 5 and trigger direct confrontation.
- The Kremlin is actively attempting to erode NATO's credibility by executing "grey zone" actions that are offensive but fall short of triggering Article 5, aiming to blur the alliance's red lines.
- Analysts describe Putin as a paranoid leader with Stalin-like power, isolated from his inner circle and incapable of admitting tactical mistakes, leading to a "no way out" dynamic with his cabal.
- Putin's primary strategic goal remains a negotiated "carve-up" of the world; he is waiting for a direct call from Western leaders (Biden, Macron, or Johnson) to formalize spheres of influence over Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova.
- Russia faces internal fragility with rising anti-Moscow sentiment in regions like Siberia and Tatarstan, where elites and the public are increasingly resistant to the war, creating a risk of destabilizing the Russian state itself.
- Domestic conditions in Moscow are described as tense and panic-inducing due to mass surveillance, searches, and potential martial law, contrasting with the broader Russian desire for an exit from the conflict.