Interview, Conference Presentation
War in Ukraine: how far will Putin go?
- Escalation is expected to continue as a strategic "narcotic" driven by Vladimir Putin's willingness to out-escalate opponents if the war turns unfavorably or if the West supplies excessive arms, potentially leading to extreme conflict levels supported by perceived impunity from Russia's nuclear arsenal.
- The use of battlefield tactical nuclear weapons is an increasingly discussed dynamic, while bogus allegations regarding US chemical weapons labs and private mercenaries may serve as a pretext for chemical weapons deployment and further major Russian escalation.
- With 190,000 Russian troops positioned on the edge of NATO territory, there is an uncomfortably high risk of direct confrontation, particularly if sabotage or direct actions target arms depots in Europe due to Western supply of sophisticated weaponry.
- Direct attacks on European arms sites could pressure NATO to invoke Article 5 or respond differently, creating a scenario where a NATO-Russia war could rapidly escalate into a nuclear exchange.
- Putin is anticipated to conduct offensive actions designed to blur Article 5 commitments and erode NATO's architecture without triggering a formal collective defense response.
- Domestic conditions include strong anti-Moscow sentiment with predictions that regional elites in areas like Siberia or Tatarstan may eventually reject the conflict, while Putin's refusal to admit mistakes and the loyalty of his inner circle suggest a lack of willingness to de-escalate.
- A potential peace conference proposed by Western leaders could be viewed by Putin as a decisive victory allowing him to "carve up" territory, potentially leading to a cessation of hostilities following such a declaration.
- The current conflict trajectory carries significant risks of destroying Russia itself, fueled by concerns over the leader's state of mind and the determination of his cabal to continue "all the way down."