War in Ukraine: The Economist interviews Tony Blair

Tony Blair's Assessment of Vladimir Putin and Russian Trajectory

• Blair characterizes Putin's evolution into a "third incarnation" as increasingly detached from reality and incapable of rational calculation by external observers.
• He warns that Putin has accumulated massive personal wealth and dismantled all democratic checks and balances within Russia.
• Blair predicts Putin's eventual downfall, citing his transformation of Russia into a pariah state and the crippling of its economy.
• He anticipates Ukraine emerging as a stronger, independent state, potentially becoming a member of the European Union.

Critique of Western Foreign Policy and Retreat

• Blair argues Western democracies have been in "retreat" for over a decade, failing to shape the global balance of power.
• He identifies the lack of a "strategic, long-term view" as the primary failure in Western engagement with Africa, India, and the Middle East.
• He asserts that the West is losing influence in Africa to China and Russia due to bureaucratic slowness and an inability to build effective relationships.
• Blair notes that while many nations (e.g., in the Sahel, India, Middle East) prefer Western ties, the West fails to counter Russian and Chinese inroads because it does not address their specific security concerns.

Specific Evaluations of Past Military Interventions

• Iraq: Blair defends the Iraq invasion as a move to replace a brutal dictatorship with democracy, contrasting it with Putin's support for the Assad regime in Syria.
  • He rejects the "double standard" argument, noting Iraqis voted in subsequent elections while the West took no action on chemical weapons in Syria.
• Afghanistan: He concedes the U.S. withdrawal likely emboldened Putin, arguing the West could have stayed longer to help the country transition.
• Global Context: He emphasizes that removing Saddam Hussein and the Taliban was distinct from propping up dictators, framing the former as flawed but ultimately democratic efforts.

Strategic Recommendations for the West Regarding Ukraine

• Blair agrees with President Zelenskyy that the West must impose tougher sanctions and provide offensive weaponry, including tanks, long-range missiles, and heavy artillery.
• He states the distinction between defensive and offensive weapons becomes "meaningless" once a certain threshold of capability is reached.
• He urges Europe to accept short-term economic pain to ensure long-term security and to ratchet up pressure on Russia.
• Blair believes a lasting peace with Putin in the Kremlin is unlikely, as no commitments from him can be trusted.
• He advocates for a structured negotiation aimed at halting hostilities, though he finds making a deal difficult given the current trajectory.

Geopolitical Realities: China, Alliances, and Domestic Politics

• China: Blair views the U.S.-China relationship as the defining geopolitical question of the 21st century.
  • He argues against total decoupling, suggesting lines of communication must remain open while restricting technology with security impacts.
  • He predicts China will view Russia as a "junior partner" rather than allowing Russia to dictate policy.
  • He warns that if China perceives the West as irretrievably hostile, it will align closer with Russia to counter Western pressure.
• Alliances: He calls for reviving and strengthening the transatlantic alliance to ensure policy coherence.
  • He notes that countries from India to Saudi Arabia remain outside the anti-Putin alliance due to their own regional threats (e.g., China, Pakistan, Iran).
• U.S. Politics:
  • Blair expresses concern over the "mess" of U.S. politics and the non-negligible possibility of a Donald Trump victory in 2024.
  • However, he remains unconcerned about long-term U.S. commitment, believing any future president will recognize the necessity of strong alliances regardless of past rhetoric.

Future Outlook and Liberal Democracy

• Blair hopes the war will act as a catalyst for the West to re-evaluate its positioning and retreat from the damaging politics of populism and far-right/ far-left splintering.
• He asserts the conflict demonstrates the value of liberal democracy, viewing the long-term prospects for the system as positive.
• He warns that failure to act in Africa risks increased jihadist extremism and significant migration flows toward Europe.
• The principal risk identified for the near term is Russian escalation driven by desperation as military defeat becomes clear.