Interview
War in Ukraine: The Economist interviews Tony Blair
- Western democracies must shift from a decade-long retreat to a proactive global posture by establishing a strategic, long-term view and reviving a coherent transatlantic alliance.
- The current conflict is expected to ultimately contribute to Vladimir Putin's downfall and result in a stronger, more independent Ukraine that will likely join the European Union, though immediate resolution is uncertain.
- Diplomacy is expected to become increasingly difficult as the conflict lengthens, requiring Europe to endure short-term economic and political pain despite the risk of escalation.
- A non-negligible possibility exists that Donald Trump wins the 2024 US election, though any future president is anticipated to recognize the necessity of building strong alliances regardless of prior rhetoric.
- China is projected to remain a central geopolitical variable, with the relationship defining 21st-century dynamics; while total decoupling is deemed unwise, open lines of communication must be maintained despite uncertainty regarding whether China will be a competitor, opponent, or enemy.
- If the West fails to address jihadist extremism in the Sahel, the region risks generating significant migration flows and instability.
- Maintaining a long-term strategy is challenged by current Western political splintering and populism, though populism is forecast to retreat and the long-term prospects for liberal democracy are viewed as positive.
- China will likely assume a dominant role in any Russia-China relationship, ensuring Russia remains a junior partner incapable of dictating policy, while Western intransigence risks alienating China and pulling Russia into Beijing's orbit.
- Vladimir Putin's commitments are unlikely to be trusted by the international community.