War in Ukraine: the emerging global food crisis

The war in Ukraine is exacerbating a looming global food crisis, potentially affecting hundreds of millions of vulnerable people worldwide.

• Odessa is Ukraine's primary export hub, accounting for 90% of exports of grain and metal; the blockade of this port and the destruction of Mariupol have severed the country's access to global markets.
• Russian bombing has destroyed grain barns in areas like Chernihiv, forcing farmers to work amidst unexploded shells and mines, threatening to leave harvests in the fields with no means of extraction.
• Approximately 800 million people in countries like Egypt (100 million) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (90 million) rely on Ukraine and Russia for significant shares of their grain imports (80% for Egypt, 70% for Congo).
• Global food supply is disrupted through three primary channels: direct blockade of export routes, a fertilizer shortage as Russia is a major supplier of key fertilizer types, and rising energy costs impacting the energy-intensive farming sector.
• Pre-existing stressors, including La Niña weather patterns affecting Latin America and Africa, heat waves in India, and lingering COVID-19 disruptions, compound the current supply shocks.

The potential accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO is viewed as a strategic strengthening of the alliance rather than a liability.

• Finland possesses Europe's largest artillery force and is considered highly capable of integrating with NATO operations.
• The geographic integration of Sweden and Finland is expected to significantly enhance the defense planning and security of the Baltic states (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia).
• Vladimir Putin is anticipated to exploit the expansion to reinforce his narrative of Russian encirclement, despite the fact that these nations are economically robust and unlikely to be used as offensive tools against Russia.

US political dynamics and the war's duration create uncertainty regarding future financial support and alliance stability.

• US aid packages have escalated from an initial $33 billion to a Congressional proposal of $40 billion, though passage remains subject to the Senate.
• The 2024 US presidential election, particularly the potential candidacy of Donald Trump, introduces a "stopwatch" effect that could alter the US approach to the conflict if the war drags into 2023 or 2024.
• European allies express concern over being left to bear the burden of the conflict should the United States reduce its engagement following a shift in US political leadership.