Webinar, Fireside Chat, Interview
War in Ukraine: the emerging global food crisis
- A blockade on Ukrainian exports and harvest losses are projected to exacerbate an existing global food crisis, with supply shortages driven by blocked shipping routes and Russian shipping insurance difficulties.
- Approximately 800 million people in countries such as Egypt (80% grain reliance) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (70% grain for 90 million people) depend on Russia and Ukraine for imports, while rising fertilizer costs threaten to reduce yields for nations unable to afford inputs.
- NATO is expected to strengthen significantly in the coming years, particularly through the integration of Finland and Sweden into Baltic war plans to create a unified strategic military space.
- Vladimir Putin views NATO expansion as beneficial to his narrative of Russian encirclement and intends to exploit it for internal political purposes while avoiding direct conflict with the alliance.
- The trajectory of the US approach to the conflict is expected to pivot if the war extends into 2024 during the US presidential campaign, potentially involving a Trump candidacy.
- A potential shift in US policy in late 2023 or 2024 is anticipated to cause significant concern in Europe regarding the burden of defense if American support wanes.
- Speakers intend to hold webinars near the end of 2023 to discuss the US approach to the conflict and the potential for policy shifts.