War in Ukraine: what will happen next?

Strategic Objectives and Trajectory

• Russian military objectives explicitly include regime change and the toppling of the government in Kiev.
• The conflict is characterized as Europe's most intense war in a generation, with Russian troops advancing through Ukrainian territory.
• Experts note a shift in the assessment of Putin's appetite for risk, necessitating consideration of scenarios where Russian aggression extends to NATO territory proper.

Escalation Risks and Nuclear Posturing

• A primary escalation risk stems from the proximity of 190,000 Russian troops to NATO forces, creating potential for accidental confrontation without active seeking.
• Vladimir Putin employed blood-curdling rhetoric in an early Thursday morning speech, hinting at nuclear consequences and direct attacks on the West to manipulate risk.
• There is a strategic risk that Putin could attempt to exploit divisions within NATO to weaken the credibility of the Article 5 collective defense principle over time.

Sanctions and Western Perception

• Correspondents in Kyiv report a strong sense of abandonment, criticizing Western sanctions and responses as "dithering" and insufficient small steps.
• The consensus among commentators is that the West's response is driven by values and self-respect, rather than solely the defense of Ukraine.
• One view posits that only a serious, credible deterrent capable of holding the line will force de-escalation, as weakness and appeasement are expected to invite further attacks.

Cyber Warfare and Article 5 Thresholds

• Western preparedness for Russian cyber attacks is assessed as improved compared to previous years, such as the 2016 US election interference.
• Russia is expected to use cyber capabilities in calibrated, cautious ways to signal the West to stay out, rather than engaging in uncalculated violence.
• Cyber attacks are unlikely to trigger Article 5 unless they disable key military forces or cause serious physical damage to infrastructure.
• More probable cyber operations include cognitive warfare, including disinformation and propaganda, which sit below the Article 5 threshold.
• There is a lingering risk that ambiguous lethal cyber attacks could test NATO unity, potentially leading to gradual fissures in the alliance.

Geopolitical Dynamics with China

• China faces a triad of conflicting principles: alliance with Russia against the US, non-interference, and avoidance of sanctions.
• Analysts predict China will ultimately sacrifice its principle of non-interference to assist Russia, though it remains uncomfortable with the situation.
• The prevailing assessment is that China did not engineer, plan, or explicitly encourage the specific timing and nature of the Russian invasion.

Forward-Looking Consequences

• Potential downstream effects include the changing of the European map to favor Russia, including status changes in Belarus, weakened defense of the Baltic states and Poland, and instability in Moldova.
• The bombing of Kiev, described as a cradle of Russian cities, carries unpredictable consequences that have moved the situation into uncharted waters.
• The conflict is viewed as a decisive moment for both Europe and Russia, with the potential to define the future political systems and foundations of the continent.