Interview, Fireside Chat
War in Ukraine: what will happen next?
- Russia's strategic objective is regime change in Ukraine, with ambitions that may extend to challenging NATO territory, creating escalation risks due to the close proximity of forces without intent for direct confrontation from either side.
- Putin employs risk manipulation, including nuclear rhetoric, to deter NATO, utilizing calculated thresholds of violence in unconventional and cyber domains rather than uncalculated spasm or direct attacks crossing the Article 5 threshold.
- Western cyber defenses are improved against key target attacks, yet disinformation and cognitive warfare are anticipated to increase significantly, potentially testing NATO's unity through lethal but unclear cyber scenarios.
- De-escalation is contingent on Putin perceiving real resistance rather than weakness, as appeasement is expected to invite further aggression while strong responses may halt actions such as the bombing or takeover of Kiev, which carries unpredictable consequences.
- China remains uncomfortable with the conflict and did not engineer the invasion, though competing interests regarding sanctions and alliances may compel it to prioritize supporting Russia over the principle of non-interference.
- Actions including altering the regime in Kiev, modifying Belarus's status, weakening the Baltic states or Poland, or generating refugee flows are identified as specific threats that could trigger Article 5 obligations.