Fireside Chat, Interview
Weijian Shan: Group Chairman and CEO, PAG Group
- Wei-Jian Shan anticipates that the US-China relationship may deteriorate before improving, with significant uncertainty regarding whether conditions will ever fully normalize, while acknowledging that mutual focus on shared economic interests, such as Goldman Sachs' operations, could foster better ties.
- He predicts that many Americans remain disappointed that China has not evolved politically or economically to the extent they desired, noting that both nations may have misunderstood how the other has changed, and asserts that the future trajectory depends on the specific individuals involved.
- Shan expects that China's current economic status and necessary future direction are contingent on understanding the hardships of the old central planning system, specifically citing a consensus reached 40 years ago under Deng Xiaoping to embrace market reforms.
- He posits that without the harsh lessons of the Cultural Revolution, individuals under communist ideology might have been hesitant to pursue market-oriented economic reforms.
- Regarding personal agency and opportunity, Shan maintains that he bears responsibility if an opportunity arises and he fails to be prepared to seize it, whereas he attributes the lack of opportunities to factors beyond his control, such as divine will or historical circumstances.
- Shan plans to utilize his diary entries, kept continuously since 1971, as a reference source to understand contemporary China through the lens of its history, including a prediction that individuals began missing school approximately two to three years into the Cultural Revolution.
- He expects to publish a second book at an unspecified future date, which will detail the challenges he has faced and is predicted to resonate with the audience.
- Ian Drayton expects the audience to read Shan's forthcoming book and anticipates that the Goldman Sachs session will reconvene once the publication is released.
- Shan expects the United Nations to recruit simultaneous interpreters via a nationwide examination process, a path he successfully followed, and predicts he will perform well in future examinations conducted by the Asia Foundation for visiting scholar selection.
- If selected as a visiting scholar, Shan expects the option to choose one of three schools for attendance and anticipates that the Asia Foundation may select visiting scholars in China for this purpose.