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What can Donald Trump get from Xi Jinping? | The Economist

The EconomistDonald Trump, Xi Jinping, Jeremy Page, John Prideaux, James Bennet
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AI Safety and Geopolitical Strategy

  • The Trump administration may be more receptive to AI safety discussions than the Biden administration, following concerns raised by the "semi-release" of Anthropic's new model, Myths.
  • China's AI strategy prioritizes practical applications of less powerful, cheaper models over Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
  • Beijing holds unique political concerns regarding AI, specifically:
    • The potential for AI to exacerbate unemployment, a sensitive domestic issue.
    • The risk that private AI companies gain societal or economic insights that bypass the Communist Party's total oversight.
  • Despite differing approaches, both nations share concerns about AI integration with nuclear weapons, pathogen development by non-state actors, and cyber fraud.
  • Trust deficits prevent the two sides from accepting limitations on AI activities, even if regulatory coordination is possible.
  • A baseline agreement exists under the Biden administration committing both sides to keep humans in control of nuclear weapons ("human in the loop").

Taiwan and Arms Sales

  • US-China-Taiwan relations are currently underpinned by three joint communiques signed in 1972, 1979, and 1982.
  • The 1982 communiqué commits the US to gradually reducing arms sales to Taiwan, contingent on China adopting a peaceful approach to the strait.
  • China accuses the US of violating the 1982 agreement by failing to reduce arms sales; the US counters that China's increasing military threats justify continued sales.
  • Donald Trump has reportedly engaged in direct negotiations with Xi Jinping regarding future arms sales, a move that challenges secret assurances given to Taiwan in 1982.
  • Specific financial developments include:
    • A December approval of a record $11 billion arms package for Taiwan.
    • Subsequent reports that the White House delayed a larger proposed package worth $13–14 billion.
  • Xi Jinping explicitly labeled arms sales to Taiwan the most critical issue in bilateral relations during a January phone call with Trump, demanding "extreme caution."

Trade Mechanisms and Economic Dynamics

  • A proposal exists to establish a US-China Trade Board, intended to distinguish between sensitive and less sensitive goods to relax certain trade restrictions.
  • Chinese officials prioritize regular working-level dialogue over the specific title of the mechanism.
  • Historical working-level negotiations have often failed due to a lack of high-level authorization, resulting in "talking shops" that defer substantive decisions.
  • Donald Trump frequently seeks immediate economic wins, such as investment commitments or purchases of US goods, upon returning from bilateral summits.
  • Xi Jinping faces minimal domestic political risk for granting Trump symbolic wins, given his absolute political control following recent military purges.
  • However, Xi is motivated by China's economic vulnerabilities, specifically:
    • Overcapacity in the Chinese export system.
    • A long-standing lack of domestic consumption stimulation.
  • Consequently, Beijing will likely only agree to US purchases of "the three Bs" (beef, soybeans, Boeing) in exchange for tangible concessions regarding US trade restrictions.