Interview
What can Donald Trump get from Xi Jinping? | The Economist
- Diplomacy is projected to shape US-China ties over the next six months through an anticipated series of four meetings in 2026, potentially influencing long-term relations.
- The Trump administration may become more open to discussing AI safety following the semi-release of "mythos," while Chinese officials are expected to prioritize developing cheaper, more efficient models over artificial general intelligence due to concerns over societal and economic oversight.
- While both nations share concerns regarding AI integration with nuclear weapons and risks from non-state actors, neither side currently accepts limits on AI activities or trusts the other to adhere to negotiated restrictions, despite the Biden administration's prior baseline commitment regarding human control of nuclear assets.
- Arms sales to Taiwan remain a critical bilateral issue, with China demanding extreme caution, the Trump administration weighing options directly with Xi Jinping, and the White House delaying a package of 13 to 14 billion dollars in sales.
- A proposed US trade board aims to differentiate between sensitive and less sensitive goods to relax certain restrictions, complementing Chinese interest in regular dialogue to address trade and economic matters.
- Working-level negotiations face the risk of becoming ineffective "talking shops" if high-level authorization is absent, requiring direct involvement to avoid issues being deferred.
- Trump's preference for securing immediate investment promises or goods purchases over structural economic change contrasts with Xi's willingness to avoid personal political costs, though Xi remains concerned about domestic overcapacity and weak consumption.
- China expects tangible returns from the US, such as the purchase of beef, beans, or Boeings, in exchange for any diplomatic wins or purchases that benefit the Trump administration.