Jun 26, 2017, 4:55 PM ETPanel

What's Happened to the American Dream?

Historical Definition: James Truslow Adams (1931) defined the dream not as a desire for material excess, but as a social order where individuals attain their fullest innate stature regardless of birth circumstances.
Generational Shifts:
- Pre-1985: Standard of living doubled from 1935–1960 and again from 1960–1985, allowing simultaneous achievement of the dream across neighborhoods.
- Post-1985: Standard of living has remained flat, transforming the dream into a zero-sum game of attaining "positional goods" rather than absolute improvement.
- Millennial Mindset: The generation defines success by "doing better than their parents," creating pressure to generate "billion-dollar apps" despite a lack of structured paths to success.
Gallup Data on Priorities:
- Past (Great Boomers): The dream centered on "Peace, Family, and Homeownership."
- Present (Millennials/Gen Z): Priorities have shifted exclusively to "Employment," specifically high-meaning work; family and homeownership are delayed or absent.
- Workforce Sentiment: 60% of the workforce (ages ~38) feel their job provides no meaning, viewing work as their entire life rather than a means to support family.

Employability Crisis:
- Military Data: A DoD study indicates 70% of 17–24-year-olds disqualify for service due to criminal records, drug dependencies, obesity, or lack of degrees.
- Private Sector Parallel: Approximately 60% of young adults are estimated to be unqualifiable for mainstream employment due to similar barriers.
- Systemic Exclusion: Felony records (even for non-violent offenses like unpaid child support or parking tickets) block re-entry for individuals attempting to support families.
Economic Metrics:
- Job Quality: Of 100 million full-time jobs available, only 30% of Americans report holding a "good job" ($45k–$85k).
- GDP Per Capita: Linear regression over the last 20 years shows flat growth; 94% of the recent 10 million job additions were part-time or temporary.
- Social Mobility: The probability of a child born to parents in the bottom 20% rising to the top 20% has dropped to 7.5%.
Optimism Disparities (Gallup Research):
- Asian and Hispanic populations report higher optimism that "America is working for them."
- White Americans, particularly those whose livelihoods were "snatched away" (e.g., manufacturing closures), report the lowest optimism, correlating with the rise of Donald Trump.
- Displacement: 10–25 million Americans have experienced a total loss of the "Great American Dream," primarily impacting white males.

Early Childhood Investment (Ready Nation):
- Interventions from prenatal to age 5 yield the highest economic return on investment regarding school readiness and health.
- Reducing family stress (e.g., addiction management) prevents costly long-term outcomes like NICU admissions and future criminal justice involvement.
Education and Awareness:
- Perception Gaps: Low-income youth often aspire to be police officers or probation officers due to limited exposure, rather than tech or science roles.
- Tech Opportunities: 1.4 million coding jobs were projected for 2020; however, awareness of these roles and salaries ($50k–$90k) is nearly non-existent in underserved communities.
- Media Influence: Media representation is critical; exposing children to figures like Elon Musk or roles in tech (vs. "acting or modeling") shifts aspirations.
Entrepreneurship and Innovation:
- Growth Engine: The next generation of startups is essential to reverse flat GDP; the current generation has failed to launch new companies at previous rates.
- Identification of "Grit": Jim Clifton proposes a system akin to sports scouting to identify and nurture "grit" (resilience) in high-potential students regardless of background or IQ.
- Higher Ed Reform: Current university models are described as "four-year vacations" that do not serve the specific needs of entrepreneurs or the workforce.

Governability Risks:
- The failure to provide economic opportunity to ~40–50 million citizens threatens the "governability" of the nation, potentially leading to radical political upheaval.
- Similar trends of rising populism are observed in Europe as families lose the belief that they are economically better off than their parents.
Immigration and Identity:
- The American Dream is uniquely defined by the nation's ability to absorb immigrants and offer higher quality of life than their countries of origin.
- A successful multi-ethnic democracy requires maintaining a common American identity while ensuring material comfort to reduce zero-sum ethnic jealousy.
Automation Threat:
- Automation poses an existential challenge as robot costs drop below employee costs ($8/hr vs. $25/hr), necessitating a societal strategy to preserve employment flexibility.