Panel
What's Happened to the American Dream?
Milken InstituteShaun Robinson, Jim Clifton, Robert H. Dugger, Shirin Laor-Raz Salemnia, Yascha Mounk, Will Packer
- Economic recovery is projected to require GDP per capita growth rates of 3% or higher to reverse stagnation and restore living standards that historically doubled between 1935 and 1985 but have remained flat for the subsequent 30 years.
- Society faces significant pressure from automation and globalization, including the elimination of 10,000 jobs monthly, rising employee costs, and declining robot costs, which necessitate a flexible workforce capable of securing new employment.
- A structural mismatch exists where 94% of the 10 million recently added jobs are part-time or temporary, leaving only 100 million full-time positions paying between $45,000 and $85,000, while 70 million Americans report not receiving the "Great American Dream" in the workplace.
- Social mobility is predicted to decline further if structural changes are not implemented, with the probability of a child from the bottom one-fifth of the economic distribution rising to the top fifth currently standing at only 7.5%.
- Future workforce gaps include an estimated 1.5 million coding jobs expected to be available in America in 20 years and 1.4 million tech space jobs projected by 2020, though these represent a small fraction of total job needs.
- Demographic shifts indicate that millennials, comprising 60% of the workforce, prioritize job meaning over family and home ownership, with birth rates for this generation cut in half, necessitating a focus on the "Z generation" to establish a new startup ecosystem.
- To address the existential challenge of unemployment, society must develop early identification techniques for individuals with "unusual grit" and mentorship programs to support them, as 70% of potential military recruits are currently disqualified due to records, disabilities, or lack of degrees.
- Approximately 40 million to 50 million citizens need reassurance regarding their opportunities, as the number of people experiencing the "Great American Dream" being snatched away is estimated between 10 million and 25 million.
- Higher education institutions are expected to undergo total disruption to replace the ineffective four-year model, while the military operates at only 30% efficiency due to recruitment disqualifications.
- There is a prediction that the United States can turn around its economic situation only if the nation applies attention to this challenge with the same intensity used during World War II, emphasizing the need to lead globally for the world to function better.
- If automation and globalization continue to pressure compensation without significant structural changes, society risks failure, potentially destroying the dream of an equal multi-ethnic democracy if economic jealousy and zero-sum thinking persist.