Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
Where Does Russia Go From Here?
Milken InstituteMatt Winkler, David Bonderman, Ruben Vardanyan, Susan Eisenhower, Carl Theodore, Male Speaker 1
- Russian equities and bonds are expected to continue their 2015 rebound and stabilize as ruble volatility diminishes, despite near-term concerns that volatility signals investment deterioration.
- Russian retail businesses, particularly in food, are projected to achieve 30% year-over-year growth due to local procurement replacing European goods, though the broader economy's stability remains contingent on oil price trajectories.
- Over the next 20 years, Russia faces a succession panic, a transformation of private ownership culture, and a critical need to integrate with the EU or China to ensure economic sustainability for its 143 million population.
- A skills gap in arms control and geopolitics, combined with the loss of a generation of experts, is expected to cause misunderstandings regarding US intentions without a renewed cadre of specialists and a dedicated special envoy.
- The current diplomatic divide with BRICS nations and the shift in Russian nuclear doctrine, including potential discussions on tactical weapons and a "launch on warning" stance, are viewed as long-term consequences more significant than Russia's immediate survival.
- European engagement with Russia is anticipated to remain cautious; Angela Merkel is expected to balance critical pressure with patience to facilitate a midterm return to the Western community, while LNG alternatives to Russian gas will take a couple of years to become available.
- Sanctions are characterized as political irritants rather than effective economic tools, with expectations that the US lacks the will to cut Russia off from global banking and that the BRICS bank will face no new significant sanctions.
- NATO expansion into Ukraine or Georgia is deemed "off the table" and dangerous due to proximity to Moscow, with the 2008 membership plans considered unrealistic regarding original expansion criteria.
- The Kremlin is expected to maintain domestic popularity through state-controlled media narratives that cultivate anti-American sentiment and an external enemy, alongside systematic suppression of opponents.
- High-alert nuclear postures with 15-minute decision windows and increased Russian militarization are projected to continue, presenting a risk of a new Cuban missile crisis if clear benchmarks for sanction removal are not established.