Who will run Gaza?

Hamas Disarmament Prospects

• Experts assess the probability of Hamas fully relinquishing its weapons as "no."
• Potential concessions may be limited to heavier weaponry, such as rocket launchers, following a two-year depletion of that specific arsenal.
• Hamas is expected to retain lighter arms (rifles) for two primary reasons:
  • Ideological: Disarming contradicts its core identity as an "armed resistance movement."
  • Personal Security: Fighters fear reprisals from the local population, who are described as "very unpopular" and "furious" over the war's devastation.

Trump Peace Plan Governance Structure

• The proposed transitional authority is modeled on a corporate structure featuring an executive body and a strategic board.
• Executive Body: Comprised of technocrats, many recruited from the diaspora, tasked with administering 60,000 existing Palestinian civil servants.
• Strategic Board: Likely capped at 10 members, including diplomats, business figures, financiers, and Prime Minister Tony Blair.
  • Functions include setting strategy, approving executive appointments, and reporting to the UN Security Council.
  • President Trump is identified as the chair of this board.
• The structure aims to derive legitimacy from both grassroots civil society and top-down international law.

Palestinian Involvement and Disputes

• High-Level Representation: A significant conflict exists regarding the Palestinian Authority's (PA) role:
  • Israel opposes PA involvement in Gaza governance.
  • Hamas refuses to cede power to the PA, preferring independent technocrats.
  • This dynamic leaves the future representative body for Palestinians "squeezed out" by both major factions.
• Low-Level Bureaucracy: Reconciling two distinct civil service lists poses a major hurdle:
  • The Hamas-appointed civil service (post-2007).
  • The PA-appointed civil service (who were fired by Hamas but continue to receive salaries from the PA).
• Current uncertainty remains regarding how Palestinians will participate in their own governance under this new model.

Divergence from Oslo Accords

• The current approach differs from the Oslo Accords in three key dimensions:
  • Process Driver: Outsiders and technocrats are creating the initial space for civil society, rather than Palestinian rulers negotiating statehood first.
  • Social Strategy: Success relies on shifting public opinion through aid, reconstruction, and improved living standards rather than high-level diplomatic maps.
  • Regional Engagement: Arab states are expected to play active roles in security and funding, moving beyond the verbal support and unreached financial promises of the Oslo era.
• Analysts note that the Abraham Accords, previously underappreciated, have laid necessary groundwork for this shift.

US Domestic and Regional Dynamics

• President Trump's relationship with Israel is described as a "boa constrictor hug," providing leverage that may force Israeli compliance to maintain US support.
• Shifting US public opinion toward Israel is viewed as a catalyst to advance the peace process rather than a limiting factor.

Physical Conditions and Reconstruction Prospects

• Destruction Levels: Approximately 80% of Gaza's buildings have been badly damaged; border towns and suburbs are described as "flattened" and "obliterated."
• Reconstruction Hubs: While border areas are devastated, central hubs like Gaza City and Deir al-Balah remain standing and are identified as focal points for future governance.
• Rebuilding Capacity: Gazans are characterized as resilient and experienced in repeated reconstruction cycles.
• Key Constraints: The speed of recovery depends heavily on Israel's allowance of entry for building materials and equipment in the coming months.