Interview, Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat
Who will run Gaza?
- The situation is expected to progress through the next phases of President Trump's 20-point peace plan, a strategy developed by businessmen including Jared Kushner that utilizes an outsider-led approach to allow Palestinian civil society to develop organically rather than relying on top-down rulers.
- The plan envisions a technocratic transitional authority board of approximately 10 individuals, comprising diplomats, business figures, and financiers such as Tony Blair, which will set strategy, approve executive appointments, and report to the UN Security Council.
- Hamas is projected to refuse relinquishing lighter arms like rifles to maintain its identity as an armed resistance movement, though it may concede on rocket launchers, which are already significantly depleted and not considered a major strategic loss.
- Retention of weapons by Hamas rank-and-file members is driven by concerns over personal safety and potential reprisals once the war concludes, complicating efforts to disarm the group fully.
- Governance will face complex hurdles due to the PA's exclusion, as Israel opposes the PA's role and Hamas will only transfer power to independent technocrats; meanwhile, two distinct civil service lists remain, including approximately 60,000 officials on the official payroll.
- Reconstruction efforts will focus on Deir al-Balah as the central hub for governance and rebuilding, assuming building materials can enter Gaza within the coming weeks and months.
- Nearly 80% of buildings in Gaza have sustained severe damage, with towns and neighborhoods near the Israel border completely obliterated, though reconstruction is expected to proceed rapidly if material supplies are secured.
- Arab states are anticipated to play a significant role, particularly in security aspects requiring a physical presence on the ground and substantial funding contributions.
- Success depends on securing Palestinian buy-in for the new authority, yet there remains significant uncertainty regarding which specific figures or groups at various levels will be involved in the governance structure.
- The outlook acknowledges a high probability that the outcome will not be perfect, with public opinion shifts in the US favoring Israel and Trump's strong support acting as leverage rather than a limiting factor for the process.