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Why are wars getting longer?
- Global conflict intensity is projected to worsen due to the erosion of norms, exemplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the Sudan outbreak potentially initiating civil war.
- The average duration of ongoing conflicts is expected to rise, continuing an upward trend from approximately 13 years in the mid-1980s to nearly 20 years by 2021.
- Wars involving multiple insurgencies are anticipated to remain elevated, with figures roughly tripling since 2000, complicating the negotiation of viable peace deals.
- Foreign power involvement in civil wars is forecasted to persist, having increased 12-fold since the end of the Cold War to account for nearly half of all such conflicts.
- US retrenchment driven by a strategic focus on China and Russia is expected to create a vacuum filled by medium-sized powers, such as Egypt's continued involvement in Sudan.
- Specific regional dynamics include militia ties to the Russian mercenary firm Wagner in Sudan and the self-perpetuating nature of conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo through mineral looting and money laundering.
- Climate change is expected to continue displacing populations in hot, poor regions via droughts and floods, leading to resource conflicts in areas like the Sahel, Myanmar, Syria, and Pakistan.
- Jihadistic groups are likely to sustain recruitment through fantastical demands and divine justice promises, making conflict resolution difficult due to their fanatical motivation and use of atrocities.
- Impunity for mass atrocities and power holders' ability to engage in corruption are predicted to perpetuate motives for rebellion and sustain armed groups through organized crime networks.
- Short-term outlooks indicate that young men in resource-rich but untrustworthy institutions will continue joining rebel groups unless local reforms, such as police reform in Liberia, are implemented.
- Long-term conflict resolution is dependent on building trusted institutions and addressing climate change, a process expected to take decades to yield significant results.
- Sustainable peace outcomes are linked to the inclusion of women and civil society in negotiations, whereas excluding armed actors often leads to a return to violence.
- The immediate future in vulnerable regions is characterized by short life expectancy and prolonged warfare, with suicide bombings further hindering UN peacekeepers' ability to gain local trust.