Why China wants Taiwan

Core Stance on Taiwan as a Bargaining Chip

• Mainstream views in Beijing do not consider Taiwan a negotiable asset to be traded for US trade concessions (e.g., "selling Taiwan for soybeans").
• Chinese officials argue Taiwan cannot be bought or sold due to its population of 23 million and the historical necessity of conquering rather than acquiring the territory.
• While China claims sovereignty, officials distinguish between the legal assertion that "Taiwan is part of China" and the practical reality that reunification requires unifying societal identity.

Strategic Philosophy on Reunification

• Hong Kong Precedents: Chinese scholars (e.g., Tian Feilong) view Hong Kong as a lesson in handling "westernized" and "liberal-infected" societies, suggesting the need for a massive patriotic re-education campaign in Taiwan.
• Re-education Model: This strategy includes vetting candidates for loyalty oaths to the Communist Party, crushing free press, and sentencing dissidents, as seen in Hong Kong's "sham elections."
• Timeline and Patience: Reunification is viewed as a long-term project spanning 30 to 40 years, focusing on changing hearts and minds rather than immediate territorial control.
• Democratic Obstacles: Analysts note that Taiwan's "noisy, raucous" democracy, where power changes between opposing parties, would likely be extinguished under mainland rule, requiring a "cork" to be put back in the bottle.

Assessment of the Trump Administration's Impact

• Opportunity Perception: Despite Donald Trump's skepticism regarding allies and democracy, there is no mainstream view in Beijing advocating for immediate military action to capitalize on this "window of opportunity."
• Strategic Shift: While some may view Trump's tenure as a missed chance for closer stranglehold, the prevailing consensus avoids military means due to high difficulty and risk.
• Diplomatic Strategy: China sees an opportunity for the US to clarify its "One China" policy, which Beijing views as currently ambiguous and not constructively handled over the past four decades.
• Desired Outcome: A potential Chinese "win" includes US language changes that induce "gloom and despair" among Taiwanese Democrats, rather than a formal transfer of sovereignty.
• War Avoidance: China clearly aims to avoid full-scale war on Taiwan; any diplomatic gains should not escalate to conflict.

Future Governance Models

• "One Country, Two Systems" Debate: Various models for a Taiwan-specific version of "One Country, Two Systems" are currently being studied, though no official version has been formulated yet.
• Contrast with Hong Kong: Chinese interlocutors emphasize that Taiwan cannot simply copy the Hong Kong model, as Taiwan remains a sovereign democracy and is not yet reunified.
• Future Negotiations: There is expressed hope for future discussions with the Taiwanese public to define a unique path to reunification, distinct from the Hong Kong experience.