Interview
Why China wants Taiwan
- Reunification is projected to be a long-term endeavor spanning 30 to 40 years, during which China anticipates maintaining patience while preparing for a "massive reeducation campaign" to shift societal identity and beliefs in Taiwan.
- The strategy for Taiwan is expected to differ significantly from the Hong Kong model, with an approach that may require undoing the current democratic system and addressing the challenge of winning "hearts and minds" after an initial phase, rather than relying on prior treaties.
- There is no officially formulated version of "one country, two systems" for Taiwan at present, though future discussions with the Taiwanese population regarding this framework are anticipated once a majority identifies as Chinese.
- Internal discourse in Beijing is expected to feature divergent views on whether the current U.S. political climate presents a window of opportunity, with no mainstream expectation of immediate military action for reunification.
- China aims to avoid direct war but expects potential U.S. policy ambiguities or negative signaling to create uncertainty and despair among Taiwanese Democrats, which is viewed as a strategic advantage for Beijing.
- Beijing is expected to encourage the United States to clarify its position on Taiwan, operating on the premise that the U.S. role over the past four decades has lacked constructive engagement regarding the issue.