Interview, Panel
Why doesn’t the UK become closer to the EU?
- UK political reluctance to deepen EU relations stems from "Brexit PTSD," a traumatic three-year period of domestic political conflict that the public has since moved past.
- Polling indicates that closer ties with the EU are "completely, utterly uncontroversial" among the British public and the majority of Labour voters.
- Analysts predict Prime Minister Starmer will initially proceed iteratively but will likely adopt a pro-EU stance by 2028–2029 to align with his liberal progressive voter base.
- Future UK-EU cooperation faces the risk of being "worthless" if internal European dysfunction intensifies, such as the potential election of a far-right leader like Jordan Bardella in France by 2027.
- Net migration in the UK surged from a 2020 low to historic highs starting in January 2021, a trend termed the "Boris wave," driven by new liberal rules for non-EU care workers and students.
- Net migration figures have recently declined significantly, dropping from approximately 800,000 to around 200,000 annually, attributed to tightening working visa wage limits and the cessation of specific refugee inflows.
- Despite the drop in net migration, asylum claims and Channel "small boat" arrivals are rising, creating a public perception of lost border control that contradicts overall statistical trends.
- Experts warn that migration has become a proxy for broader public discontent regarding failing public services, such as long GP wait times, rather than solely a border control issue.
- There is a tension between stopping small boat crossings and the economic necessity of encouraging high-skilled migration to support growth agendas.
- The UK government has successfully implemented controls to reduce net migration, a achievement analysts argue should allow public opinion to shift toward accepting free movement with the EU within three years if net migration stabilizes near zero.