Interview, Panel
Why doesn’t the UK become closer to the EU?
- Tightening relations with the European Union is projected to be beneficial for European growth, yet a closer relationship is not expected within the current parliamentary term due to political constraints.
- A shift in the UK's position toward the EU is predicted to occur in three years (around 2028 or 2029), at which point political red lines are expected to soften or disappear to appeal to liberal progressive voters.
- Policy progress on EU ties faces the risk of an overlap between British political desire for closer connections and potential dysfunction in the EU driven by the rise of President Le Pen (Bardella) in 2027.
- Net migration is expected to decline primarily in 2024 resulting from the cessation of specific streams and tightened working visa rules with wage limits, though asylum claims are predicted to remain at peak levels.
- Small boat arrivals are forecast to continue increasing, potentially reinforcing public perceptions of inadequate border control and transforming migration into a proxy for broader discontent regarding public services and the National Health Service.
- There is a strategic risk that focusing exclusively on stopping boats could inadvertently exclude high-skilled workers who make significant economic contributions.
- Public opinion is predicted to shift rapidly toward discussing free movement with the EU if net migration reaches zero or negative levels for a period of three years.