Why Gaza won’t be rebuilt anytime soon

Scale of Destruction in Gaza

• 80% to 90% of all buildings have been destroyed.
• More than 300,000 homes have been destroyed or rendered uninhabitable (compared to 18,000 in the 2014 war, a 15-fold increase).
• Over 1 million people, representing more than half the population, are currently homeless.
• 80% of businesses and approximately 80% of farmland have been damaged or destroyed.
• Two-thirds of the road network has been wiped out.
• Rubble accumulation is estimated at 55 to 60 million tons, equivalent to 13 Great Pyramids of Giza.

Status of Reconstruction Proposals

• Egyptian-Backed Plan
  • Endorsed by multiple Arab countries; outlines a five-year rebuilding process.
  • Phase 1 (6 months): Focuses on rubble clearance; potential use of mixed rubble and sand to reclaim coastal land for a new port and infrastructure.
  • Phase 2 (2.5 years): Construction of at least 200,000 new homes alongside clinics and schools.
  • Phase 3 (Years 4-5): Rebuilding of governing institutions.
  • Feasibility Obstacles:
    • Engineers argue rubble clearance will take six years or longer, not six months.
    • Requires approximately $55 billion in funding from Gulf donor states.
    • Donors refuse funding unless Hamas is disarmed and a guarantee against future conflict is provided.
    • Israel holds a veto over the Rafah crossing, restricting the flow of construction materials.
    • Hamas control of parts of Gaza remains a barrier to material entry and security guarantees.
• US/Israeli Alternative Proposal
  • Envisioned by some Washington and Jerusalem officials to begin limited reconstruction on the Israeli-controlled side of the "yellow line."
  • Concept: Creation of modular towns or villages housing thousands with basic services, starting in southern Gaza.
  • Feasibility Obstacles:
    • Few Palestinians currently reside in the proposed Israeli-controlled zones; resettlement would be required.
    • Uncertainty regarding freedom of movement for residents within the Israeli-controlled territory.
    • Arab nations have rejected funding, fearing the plan would cement the partition of Gaza into a permanent border.
    • Business interests linked to the Trump administration reportedly failed to secure Gulf investment for this model.

Immediate Outlook and Interim Measures

• No immediate implementation is expected for either major plan due to unresolved security and political conditions.
• The immediate focus for the international community will shift to rehabilitation rather than reconstruction.
• Interim efforts will prioritize temporary shelters, water infrastructure, and basic service provision to sustain the current population.
• A resolution regarding the disarmament of Hamas and the establishment of security conditions remains a prerequisite for any large-scale rebuilding.