Interview
Why Gaza won’t be rebuilt anytime soon
- An Egyptian-drafted reconstruction plan proposes a timeline spanning five years, beginning with a six-month rubble clearance phase that engineers estimate could extend to six years or more, followed by a 2.5-year period for constructing at least 200,000 new homes and rebuilding clinics and schools, and concluding in the fourth and fifth years with efforts to rebuild governing institutions.
- The Egyptian plan requires approximately $55 billion in funding and includes building a port and infrastructure on reclaimed land off the Gaza coast, contingent upon successful debris removal and the disarmament of Hamas to secure contributions from wealthy Gulf monarchies.
- An alternative proposal floated by American and Israeli officials suggests establishing modular towns for several thousand Palestinians within the Israeli-controlled sector of Gaza, starting with one or two units in the south, though funding from Arab nations is unlikely due to fears of cementing a partition border.
- Implementation of both the Egyptian and alternative proposals faces significant obstacles, including Israel's historical veto on large-scale construction materials through the Rafah crossing as long as Hamas controls part of Gaza, and the absence of international investment due to unresolved security concerns regarding Hamas disarmament.
- Following over two years of conflict which destroyed or heavily damaged more than 300,000 homes and left at least one million people homeless, the status quo is expected to persist with most of the population remaining homeless and unemployed.
- The international community is projected to prioritize rehabilitation measures, such as water infrastructure and temporary shelters, rather than permanent reconstruction, as ambitious post-war plans remain stalled until conditions are secured to disarm Hamas and ensure security.