Why India’s election has stoked conflict

Demographic and Political Context

• India, the world's largest democracy, comprises 29 states, seven territories, and 900 million voters.
• The 2019 general election is characterized by rising Hindu nationalism, which is increasingly challenging India's historical secularism.
• Nationalism is being leveraged to frame elections as a defense of Hindu culture against perceived threats from terrorism and minority communities.

Rising Communal Tensions and Cow Protection Laws

• The Hindu-led government has intensified enforcement of laws prohibiting cow slaughter and beef sales, citing the sanctity of the cow as a "mother" figure.
• Between 2015 and 2018, cow vigilante gangs killed 44 people, 38 of whom were Muslim, marking the highest number of hate crime incidents in a decade.
• Businesses involved in the beef trade have faced shutdowns and legal accusations, significantly impacting Muslim communities who have traditionally worked in these sectors.

Socio-Economic Impact on Minorities

• In Uttar Pradesh, a religiously diverse state, Muslims like Alam (one of 190 million) report systemic barriers to economic mobility, including loss of generational trades such as butchery.
• Rising Hindu-Muslim tensions have forced families in these communities to withdraw children from school due to financial strain; Alam was forced to stop his sister's and children's education.
• The rise in nationalism has coincided with an economic slowdown and rising unemployment, shifting political support toward a nationalist agenda rather than Modi's initial promise of modernization and prosperity.

Geopolitical Flashpoints and Election Strategy

• In February 2019, tensions escalated following a Pakistan-based terror group's attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir, resulting in the death of 40 Indian soldiers.
• India responded by bombing a facility it identified as a terrorist training camp in Pakistan.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP party utilized this security threat to galvanize the 80% Hindu majority, framing the election as a choice between protecting national security and cultural integrity.

Future Outlook and Uncertainties

• Prime Minister Modi is described by supporters as a protector against both "outer" (external terror) and "inner" attacks, though critics note the potential for severe consequences against those perceived as threatening national peace.
• The trajectory of India's governance remains uncertain, pivoting between further communal division or a return to the country's historic secular traditions.
• The 2019 election is viewed as a critical juncture where the balance between secularism and a Hindu nationalist state will be redefined.