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Why is Russia invading Ukraine?
- Russia has established the largest military buildup in Europe since the Cold War at the Ukraine border, threatening to challenge European security if further territorial changes occur by force.
- The West has signaled readiness to impose severe economic and strategic costs on Russia should it attempt to alter borders through aggression.
- Vladimir Putin disputes the legitimacy of the Russia-Ukraine border, asserting that the two nations constitute a single people and claiming Ukraine lacks statehood.
- Historical ties include a 17th-century union between Moscow and Kyiv that formed the Russian Empire, leading Moscow to view Kyiv as the "cradle" of its civilization and faith.
- Despite 13% of Ukrainians being ethnically Russian and nearly one-third speaking Russian as a first language, recent conflicts have shifted public sentiment sharply against Russia.
- The war in eastern Ukraine has resulted in 14,000 dead soldiers and civilians, fueling strong anti-Russian sentiment.
- 75% of Ukrainians born since 1991 now prioritize a future within the EU rather than with Russia.
- Russia opposes a democratic, Western-aligned Ukraine because Ukraine's proximity to NATO members creates a strategic buffer that Putin refuses to accept.
- In 1991, NATO's eastern border ended in Germany; it has since expanded to share borders with Russia in several locations, with Ukraine separating Russia from four current NATO members.
- Putin has determined that Ukraine must remain within Russia's sphere of influence and never join NATO.
- During the 2004 presidential elections, mass protests (the "Orange Revolution") led to the defeat of Putin-backed Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko.
- Yanukovych later reversed Ukraine's EU Association Agreement under Russian pressure, which sparked peaceful protests, a violent government crackdown, and his eventual removal from power.
- Following Yanukovych's flight from his mansion in Kyiv, Putin viewed the event as a threat to his own regime and sought to make an example of Ukraine to deter similar domestic unrest.
- Russia responded to the 2014 revolution by annexing the Crimean peninsula, a move that significantly boosted Putin's domestic popularity ratings.
- Moscow subsequently encouraged pro-Russian separatist uprisings in eastern Ukraine, initiating a conflict that remains ongoing.
- With rising internal opposition, including protests following the 2021 poisoning and imprisonment of Alexei Navalny, Putin is increasingly relying on external conflict with the West to generate regime legitimacy.
- Putin frames himself as Russia's defender against a "failing" West to prevent Western-style democracy in neighboring Ukraine from inspiring domestic demands for similar political reforms.
- The conflict is sustained by Putin's strategy to protect his regime from internal insecurity by projecting aggression outward.