Other
Why is Russia invading Ukraine?
- Allies and partners are prepared to impose severe costs and significant harm on Russia and its economy.
- Any further Russian alteration of borders by force is presented as a direct challenge to all of European security.
- Vladimir Putin remains determined to keep Ukraine within Russia's sphere of influence and outside of alliances such as NATO.
- A democratic Ukraine with Western ties is deemed unacceptable by Russia, as such a model could foster domestic demands for similar governance.
- Putin disputes the validity of the Ukraine-Russia border and asserts that Russians and Ukrainians constitute a single people.
- Conflicts on Russia's borders are expected to persist as long as internal political woes, including falling popularity and rising youth opposition, continue to challenge the regime's legitimacy.
- External conflict is anticipated as a strategy to provide a new source of legitimacy and distract from internal instability by portraying the West as failing and antagonistic.
- Historical context notes that Russia lost control over Ukraine's political direction by the 2004 presidential elections, triggering a decisive shift in Russian strategy to prevent future democratic revolutions.
- The outlook suggests that the border with Ukraine will remain a source of conflict and instability rather than peace for the duration of Putin's current political vulnerabilities.